We’re currently monitoring Tropical Storm Jerry in the Atlantic and one disturbance in the Bay of Campeche.

Jerry continues to strengthen and is expected to pass near the Leeward Islands tomorrow. Forecast guidance suggests it reaches hurricane strength before the weekend, which would make it the fifth hurricane of the 2025 season.

The overwhelming majority of weather models remain consistent in turning Jerry northward and away from the United States, though Bermuda may need to watch for potential impacts this weekend.

Tropical Storm Watches remain in effect for Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts & Nevis, Montserrat, St. Barthelemy, St. Martin, Sint Maarten, Saba, St. Eustatius, and Guadeloupe.

Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche carries only a 10 percent chance of developing before moving inland over Mexico within the next day or so. Regardless of development, it will bring locally heavy rain to the region. If a tropical storm forms, it would take the name “Karen”.

Tropical Storm Jerry formed and is forecast to become a hurricane Wednesday as it approaches the northern Leeward Islands.

Sustained winds are up to 45 mph and the storm is quickly moving west at 24 mph.

Jerry is forecast to have 90 mph sustained winds as the core passes near or just north of the islands late Thursday and Friday.

It will slow down a bit and it starts to turn more west-northwest in the next few days. Late this week and through the weekend, Jerry starts to curve north as a trough breaks down the ridge of high pressure.

Many models steer the storm near/east of Bermuda but some take a southern track with more implications for the islands.

There is a large spread in models after it passes the islands. Some track Jerry through stronger wind shear while others lean towards a path offering more favorable winds for the storm.

Stick with us as we watch model trends with more updates to come on Tropical Storm Jerry.