Tropical Storm Jerry continues to struggle against moderate wind shear in the west-central Atlantic. It now has sustained winds of 50 mph and is not expected to become a hurricane.

This storm should stay well east of Bermuda and dissipate next week.

Behind Jerry, a new disturbance has a growing (now 40%) chance of developing in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic.

Early guidance indicates anything that forms would likely turn north and out to sea, away from the United States.

The next name up would be Lorenzo.

We’re currently monitoring Tropical Storm Jerry in the Atlantic and one disturbance in the Bay of Campeche.

Jerry continues to strengthen and is expected to pass near the Leeward Islands tomorrow. Forecast guidance suggests it reaches hurricane strength before the weekend, which would make it the fifth hurricane of the 2025 season.

The overwhelming majority of weather models remain consistent in turning Jerry northward and away from the United States, though Bermuda may need to watch for potential impacts this weekend.

Tropical Storm Watches remain in effect for Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts & Nevis, Montserrat, St. Barthelemy, St. Martin, Sint Maarten, Saba, St. Eustatius, and Guadeloupe.

Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche carries only a 10 percent chance of developing before moving inland over Mexico within the next day or so. Regardless of development, it will bring locally heavy rain to the region. If a tropical storm forms, it would take the name “Karen”.