The 6th named storm of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season, Franklin, gradually strengthens Monday. As of 11 AM max sustained winds are at 60 mph and it heads west-northwest at 14 mph. The storm develops better outflow and thrives off of warm Western Caribbean waters in the mid to upper 80s. Upper level winds favor further intensification before landfall late Monday night and early Tuesday in the Yucatan peninsula. While the 11 AM National Hurricane Center forecast keeps Franklin below hurricane strength, it could become the first hurricane of the season. Hurricane Reconnaissance Aircraft will investigate Monday afternoon and get a better grasp on the strength of the storm. The graphic below shows the incredible GOES 16 enhanced satellite. This data is preliminary/non-operational.
Franklin will emerge in the Bay of Campeche Tuesday night and likely strengthen (possibly rapidly) to near hurricane strength before landfall in mountainous East Mexico early Thursday. It is no threat to the U.S..
Franklin brings tropical storm conditions and the threat for flash flooding to Belize and the Yucatan through early work week. 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts of 12 inches, are possible through Wednesday. That heavy rain threat shifts to East Mexico mid to late work week.
It doesn’t look promising for Invest 99L the next 5 days as it moves west-northwest at 15 mph. Upper level winds are on the rise and stay unfavorable for tropical cyclone development over the next few days. Dry African air will also hinder development.
By late in the week conditions are a bit more ripe for tropical depression development near the warm waters near the Bahamas. We will keep an eye on it.