As expected, the rugged terrain of Hispanola really did a number on Fred – weakening the circulation dramatically over the last 24 hours. As of 11am Thursday, the center of Fred was located just north of the eastern tip of Cuba and max winds were at a generous 35 mph.

While the system will be battling moderate westerly shear, and may possibly have some land interaction with Cuba, over the next day or two. Environmental conditions will be more favorable for at least some restrengthening to take place as Fred approaches South Florida and the Keys as we head into the weekend, especially if the storm moves into the Gulf and stays off Florida’s west coast.

While we have general consensus on a west-northwesterly track followed by a turn to the north-northwest, the intensity forecast remains highly uncertain with outcomes ranging from a dissipating system to a moderate tropical storm. The forecast uncertainty is heightened by the fact that weak systems like this are notoriously tricky to forecast.

At this point, those across Central and South Florida should count on increased rain chances and possible gusty winds at times over the weekend. Beyond that, it’s still to early to pinpoint any specific impacts. We should get a better idea of expected rain totals and wind speeds within the next day or so. At the end of the day, this is not a storm you need to lose any sleep over.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Invest 95L will be following a very similar path to Fred into the Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center currently has development odds at 60% over the next five days. While we may see something spin up over the weekend, majority of model guidance doesn’t do a whole lot with it in the long term thanks quite a bit of land interaction. Still, it will need to be watched.

After becoming a tropical storm late Tuesday night, Fred must now traverse the highly mountainous terrain of Hispanola (Dominican Republic/Haiti). As of 11am Wednesday, Fred was located about 25 miles south-southeast of the Dominican republic with max winds of 45 mph. It’s a rather ragged looking system at the moment.

The trek across Hispanola will undoubtedly weaken the storm in the short term, and the process of restrengthening on its approach to Florida will likely be slow. With a favorable environment across the Florida straits and the eastern Gulf, we’ll have to be on the lookout for any substantial strengthening as the storm nears Florida this weekend. At the moment, majority of model guidance keeps this below hurricane intensity.

As is often the case, location and significance of any impacts for Florida will be highly dependent on the storm’s exact track – something that will become more clear in the coming days. For now, plan on increased rain chances and possibly some gusty winds for parts of the state over the weekend.