Fred remains disorganized as of Saturday morning as it continues to battle land interaction with Cuba and westerly wind shear. As of 11am, Fred has been downgraded to a remnant low, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Slight strengthening is still forecast as Fred continues to move around the western periphery of a steering ridge of high pressure into a somewhat better environment and could regain tropical storm status by Sunday evening.

The center of Fred will pass well west of Tampa Bay with most of the rain and wind offshore. Outer bands and moisture from Fred will bring periods of showers and storms to the area through Sunday with the heaviest rain along and west of I-75. With a further track to the west, the flooding risk continues to lessen for our area. However, a marginal risk of severe weather exists with a brief tornado possible as Fred passes to our west.

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Seven has strengthened to Tropical Storm Grace Saturday morning and is looking better organized on satellite imagery. Grace is expected to take a similar track to Fred over the Caribbean Islands where land interaction could keep the system fairly weak. However, South Florida is currently in the cone of uncertainty late next week. While Florida impacts are possible, it is too early to speculate specifics. Stay tuned.

Tropical Depression Fred continues to limp along the northern coast of Cuba this morning. It remains a poorly organized system for now, but some organization and slight strengthening is expected to take place through the weekend.

Most of the convection is still displaced to the east of the center thanks to continued westerly shear. While that shear is only expected to weaken slightly, Fred is moving into a very moist environment and will be over the warmest water it has had during its entire journey. Putting all that together, it’s likely that Fred becomes a weak tropical storm again at some point.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Florida Keys, while a tropical storm watch is in place extends north along Florida’s southwest coast to Englewood. In these areas expect periods of heavy rain and gusty winds (up to tropical storm-force) at times on Saturday. The exact track up the coast will play a big role in rainfall totals further north around Tampa Bay. It’s quite possible that the heaviest rain stays offshore. For now plan on at least some increase in rain chances around Tampa Bay on Sunday. Heavy rain and gusty winds should move into the Florida Panhandle/Big Bend late Sunday into Monday.