“Erin” Expected to Form This Week in the Atlantic

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A robust tropical wave (Invest 97L) will likely develop into a tropical depression or storm within the next few days. The National Hurricane Center now gives it a high 90% chance to develop within the next week.

While there is growing confidence that this system will stay out of the Caribbean Sea, it’s too early to confidently predict where it may go from there.

97L will be battling slightly cooler waters and pockets of Saharan dust over the next few days. By the time it nears the Lesser Antilles, it should move into a more favorable environment for strengthening.

Questions remain regarding the storm’s future strength and upper level steering that would impact its ultimate track. Additionally, weather models will become significantly more reliable after a storm actually forms.

For now, this disturbance is roughly 4,000 miles away from the mainland United States, giving us plenty of time to monitor its progress. “Erin” is the next name up on our storm naming list.

Meanwhile, a struggling Invest 96L (shown in yellow) in the central tropical Atlantic will have a low chance of developing within the next few days. Its formation would be inconsequential to the United States.

New Tropical Wave, Invest 97L, will strengthen in the week ahead

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We’ve been watching a few waves kick off the coast of Africa and Invest 97L has a good chance to form in the week ahead. The development odds have steadily been climbing for this area – now 80% in the next 7 days.

The yellow highlighted area, Invest 96L, is looking less impressive as it battles Saharan dust. This area will continue to weaken the next few days.

Behind it, the tropical wave emerging off the coast of Africa is producing a large area of storms just southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.

This could become the first hurricane of the season as it moves west-northwest. There is a lot of runway for strengthening and conditions are favorable for this to become a tropical depression around the middle of this week.

It will face some challenges from dry air and dust over the Atlantic. But as it gets closer to the Caribbean, the atmosphere is more favorable for it to strengthen.

Currently trends favor a turn north that would keep this east of Florida and the East Coast given the upper steering pattern. It is too early for high confidence in any track and we will look for model consistency over the next few days.

This is about a week out so we will watch it evolve and keep you updated.

Erin is the next name in line. August 11 is the average date the first hurricane of the season forms in the Atlantic.