Confidence is growing that a disturbance in the southwestern Atlantic could acquire tropical or subtropical characteristics as it nears the state of Florida this week. As of Sunday morning, the National Hurricane Center is giving a broad area of low pressure east of Florida a 70% chance of formation over the next 2 days and 90% over the next 5 days.

Regardless of development, there will likely be local impacts including gusty winds and heavy rain for the Tampa Bay region as well as rough surf and coastal flooding for the east coast of Florida due to strong onshore winds and full moon enhanced tides.

While environmental conditions appear conducive for development in the Atlantic and the disturbance could be named Nicole or Owen in the coming days , it’s important to keep in mind this will by no means be anything like Ian.  We expect it to remain relatively weak as it moves slowly westward or southwestward towards the Sunshine State. The weather will however turn unsettled by midweek as heavy rain and wind gusts up to tropical storm force spread across the state.

We had a flurry of late-season tropical activity this week, including two simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic – Lisa and Martin – for only the 3rd time on record! Things are a bit quieter heading into the weekend, and the main story heading into next week will be the potential for some weak development east of Florida.

A broad area of low pressure is likely to form across the northeastern Caribbean Sea and southwestern Atlantic over the next coupe of days. It’s possible that this begins to take on some tropical characteristics next week, but any development should stay weak. As this moves in a general westward direction next week, it will lead to a string of days with some gusty winds and fast moving downpours for parts of the Southeastern U.S. Atlantic coast and Florida. In addition, some minor coastal flooding will be possible on Florida’s east coast due to the combination of strong onshore flow and predicted king tides.