Tropical Storm Bret and Cindy forecast to weaken

Both Tropical Storm Bret and Cindy are forecast to weaken as they move into hostile environments over the weekend. As of Saturday morning, Bret remains a weak tropical storm in the Caribbean Sea just north of Aruba. However, it continues to struggle to maintain its structure as it battles wind shear in the region. The National Hurricane Center forecast calls for Bret to degenerate to a trough of low pressure over the weekend.

Meanwhile, while Cindy has strengthened slightly in the Atlantic, its window of time to get stronger is quickly running out. The 60 mph storm is now moving WNW around the periphery of high pressure into an environment where wind shear and dry air will take its toll. Remnants of Cindy could pass near Bermuda late next week.

The formation of Bret and Cindy marked the first time the Atlantic has had two named storms in June simultaneously. The storms formed in an area that is typically reserved for development later in the season. However, warm water temperatures and little limiting factors early in their life span fostered development. Typically in June, storms tend to be more favored in the Gulf of Mexico and parts of the western Caribbean.

We’ll keep an eye out for whatever could be brewing next across the Atlantic Basin. The next name on the list is Don.

Tropical Storm Bret could become a hurricane, watching another disturbance in Atlantic

Tropical Storm Bret, the 3rd storm of the season, formed Monday in the central Atlantic and it could become the first hurricane of the season. As of Tuesday morning, Bret has winds up to 40 mph and is moving west at 17 mph. Additional strengthening is expected in the coming days and Bret could reach hurricane strength on Thursday before approaching the Lesser Antilles. The eventual track of Bret depends on how strong it gets, where a stronger storm could be steered by high pressure to the north and a weaker storm would drift into the Caribbean Sea and battered by wind shear. Regardless, Bret is not expected to pose a threat to Florida weather.

Not far behind Bret, another disturbance dubbed Invest 93L is showing some promise. The disorganized area of showers and storms has been given a 60% chance of formation over the next 2 days and a 70% chance of formation over the next 7 days by the National Hurricane Center. 93L is following closely behind Bret into an environment conducive for tropical development and a depression could form by the end of the week. If it strengthened to a tropical storm, it would be named Cindy.

If it seems unusual we’re seeing so much tropical activity in the Atlantic right now, it’s because it is. Bret and 93L are spinning in areas typically more active later in the season. In fact, if Bret became a hurricane, it’ll only be the second time on record that one has formed in the Atlantic in the month of June. It also be far sooner than the average date of August 11th for the first hurricane of the season. The increased activity is driven by above average water temperatures in the region and a lack of inhibiting factors like dry air and wind shear.