Beryl has weakened into a tropical storm with sustained winds of 70mph as of the 2pm advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Beryl may weaken more over the next few hours before re-emerging over the western Gulf of Mexico today.

From there, the fuel provided by the western Gulf’s abnormally warm sea surface temperatures should strengthen the storm as it turns northwest. The latest NHC forecast for Beryl continues to reorganize it into a hurricane before making another landfall along the coast of Mexico or Texas. The entire coast of Texas is now within the forecast cone.

The estimated arrival time for this landfall would be Sunday night or Monday. Coastal flooding, heavy rain, and powerful hurricane/tropical storm-force winds would be the primary hazards facing the western gulf coast given our current forecast. Additionally, thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes will be possible north of where the storm’s center makes landfall.

Thankfully, there are no additional storms or disturbances being monitored at this time. A stout plume of Saharan dust is actively tampering activity in the middle of the Atlantic.

No new named storms are expected to form over the next week.

Beryl is moving across the western Caribbean and continues to slowly weaken as it deals with more hostile wind shear. Radar from western Cuba shows the northern portion of the eye continues to show intense storms. Some of the outer bands have been affecting portions of Cuba throughout the day. Conditions along the Yucatan Peninsula will begin to deteriorate late this evening with landfall expected on Friday morning.

The official forecast track has not changed much over the past 24 hours. Landfall as a hurricane on the western Caribbean coast of Mexico. The storm will rapidly weaken due to the land interactions. The trek over land should be short lived enough that Beryl will make it into Gulf of Mexico as a moderate to strong Tropical Storm. Beryl will then encounter more warm waters and conditions which should allow for strengthening once again.

Models continue to show some uncertainty with respect to Beryl’s next landfall. Much of this will be determined by the strength of the storm and how quickly it reorganizes in the Gulf of Mexico. A weaker storm will tend to move further south, but a stronger storm will tend to move more northward since it will interact more with the trough to the north.

Models generally agree that it will take some time for Beryl to regain its intensity and the final 12-24 hours of its time over water will be the time we will likely see the most intensification. This can also be a dangerous situation to have an intensifying storm at landfall. Conditions can worsen much more quickly and catch people off guard.

Our exclusive Fox Model depicts the ridge moving eastward and the developing weakness in the ridge and trough to the north. This will allow the storm to move more northward. The storm will also have its most intense convection on the northern side. This could bring significant flooding to southern Texas early next week.