Anytime an area low pressure sits over the Gulf of Mexico during the summertime tropical cyclone development can never be ruled out. Despite marginally favorable wind shear, the area of low pressure thrived off of the warm eastern Gulf waters and gained tropical characteristics early Monday. Tropical Depression 6 was quickly upgraded to Tropical Storm Emily at 8 AM. As of 8 AM max sustained winds are at 45 mph. Emily moves east at 8 mph. Tropical storm force winds extend out up to 60 miles for the center. As of 8:45 AM the center is less than 25 miles from the Sunshine Skyway Bridge. Tropical Storm Emily will cut across Central Florida Monday. Training/flooding is likely is spots, especially for Tampa Bay South near the coast. Winds 30-40 mph+ are possible in the strongest squalls. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Anclote River southward to Bonita Beach. Emily will weaken to a depression and move into the Atlantic early Tuesday.

Heavy rain/the potential for flooding is the primary threat from Tropical Storm Emily. A Flood Watch is in effect for Hillsborough, Pinellas, Manatee, Sarasota, Hardee, Desoto and Highlands county until 8 PM Monday. 3-6″ of rain are likely. Some coastal areas will pick up well over 6 inches of rain Monday.

At times it will be gusty, especially for Tampa Bay South Monday morning and afternoon. Wind gusts will be much lower than they are in a severe thunderstorm in the summertime. Gusts up 30-40 mph+ are possible through Monday afternoon. The strongest wind field is limited to an area around the center.

A well-defined area of low pressure churned in the Northeast Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. While it is non-tropical in nature, the potential for it to become subtropical or even tropical over the next 24-36 hours prompted its designation of Invest 98L. The National Hurricane Center is giving the low a 20% chance of becoming our next tropical depression over the next 48 hours, and a 30% chance in the extended term.

The low has formed along a nearly stationary frontal boundary that has stalled out across northern Florida. This has provided a decent pool of moisture for the low. However, upper level winds are only marginally conducive to development. Sea surface temperatures on the other hand are favorable for development as most of the Gulf is running 1°-2°C above average.

Regardless of development, the low and the associated frontal boundary will bring copious amounts of rainfall to Florida through the middle of the week. Bands of rain and storms will pile up along the peninsula over the next few days, and rain will be heavy at times. There will likely be a widespread 2″-4″ across Central Florida, but there could be some spots that see locally higher amounts.