Busy Weekend in the Atlantic; Watching Invest 90L & 99L

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The Atlantic Basin is active Saturday. Invest 90L in the Caribbean and Invest 99L in the Atlantic are worth keeping an eye on in the days ahead. Invest 90L is a little more organized early Saturday. Scattered convection trying to consolidate under lighter upper level winds circled in orange. It has a medium chance of development the next 5 days, especially if it survives the track across Central America/the Yucatan and enters the Bay of Campeche Tuesday or Wednesday.  This is a hot spot for tropical cyclone development this time of year. Meanwhile Invest 99L southwest of Cabo Verde Islands still battles some dry African air and is disorganized. The likelihood is still high a depression forms over the next 5 days. It moves northwest at 15 mph and approaches the Lesser Antilles mid work-week. The next named storms are Franklin and Gert.

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As is always the case with a disorganized, developing tropical disturbance there are some model discrepancies with the forecast track and intensity. The Bermuda High guides Invest 99L on a  general west-northwest track towards the Caribbean over the couple of days. The European model is not impressed at all with Invest 99L and does not develop a tropical depression. The GFS is trending weaker too, but shows some development in the days ahead. A weaker system would tend to head more westerly towards the Caribbean while a stronger system would head more northerly. It is way too early to speculate possible U.S. impacts, if at all.

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If Invest 99L survives the track into the Eastern Caribbean/interaction with some of the islands we need to keep an eye on it.  Water temperatures are in the mid to upper 80s. Some areas are running 0.5°C-2°C above average, especially in the western Caribbean. Also of note is an incredibly warm Bay of Campeche where Invest 90L may head.

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Upper level winds favor further organization of Invest 90L as it moves west-northwest at 10-15 mph. If some of the energy holds together and spills in the southern Gulf of Mexico mid to late work week it could rapidly intensify.

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The ECMWF wind shear model shows favorable upper level winds over a very warm Bay of Campeche next Thursday morning. The Euro still suggests a strengthening named storm late work week. The 0Z brings a strong tropical storm into mountainous East Mexico Thursday. (either Franklin or Gert). The GFS also spins up a low, albeit weaker, in the southern Gulf Wednesday. It also suggests a track into East Mexico.

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Two Tropical Systems To Watch In The Atlantic

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By next week, it’s possible that we’ll be tracking two named storms in Atlantic. On Friday afternoon, Invest 90L was located in southern Caribbean Sea, while Invest 99L was out in the open Atlantic, several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

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Invest 90L is battling quite a bit of wind shear in the short term and is currently nothing more than a disorganized area of showers & storms. However, environmental conditions should become more favorable for development as it emerges near the Yucatan Peninsula early next week. There is growing model support that we may have a tropical storm or hurricane in the Bay of Campeche by the middle of next week, which could then make a run at eastern Mexico or southern Texas.

Invest 99L certainly bears watching as well. It is in a pretty good environment for further development, but is taking its sweet time getting organized. If it can get its act together, it should take advantage of an increasingly favorable environment over the next few days as it moves west-northwest toward the northeastern Caribbean. Beyond that, it is still too early to speculate whether or not it will have any U.S. impacts.

Below is the 12Z GFS Ensemble MSLP and the 0Z Euro Ensemble MSLP valid for next Wednesday evening. Images courtesy of Tropical Tidbits.

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Time is certainly on our side, as we’ll have several days to keep an eye on both of these systems.