Irma is tied for the second strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic Basin. It is just behind Hurricane Allen, which peaked at 190 mph winds. The Northern Leeward Islands took a direct hit Wednesday morning. Relentless category 5 Irma slams Barbuda, Saint Martin, and Anguila early Wednesday with 185 mph. A NOAA National Ocean Service on the island of Barbuda recorded a gust of 155 mph before it was knocked out. Images from these islands show catastrophic wind damage. Next in the path of Irma are the U.S. and British Virgin Islands Wednesday afternoon followed a close call with Puerto Rico Wednesday night. The storm is massive, its about 500 miles wide, (estimated on GOES 16 enhanced satellite imagery) and impacts are felt well from the center of circulation. Tremendous rainfall and pounding storm surge will batter the northern portions of these islands. 8-12 inches of rain, with isolated amounts up to 20 inches is likely from the Northern Leeward Islands, Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands. A catastrophic storm surge of 7-11 feet is expected in these islands too (while north Puerto Rico will see a 4-6 foot surge). Wave heights build to a remarkable 40 feet+ as of late morning Wednesday. Storm surge will be even worse for Turks and Caicos and the Southeast Bahamas as Irma gains latitude later this work week. The concern for Florida and the Southeast U.S. is that these waves lift northward this weekend and early next week. Due to the size and massive flow around Irma, storm surge will be a major issue on the north and east side of the storm. The Keys will get a double whammy as Irma approaches Saturday and then lifts north.

As of 11 AM max sustained winds are at 185 mph and pressure climbs some to 918 mb. Irma now moves WNW at 16 mph under the perimeter of the Bermuda High. The extent of hurricane force winds will fluctuate some as the storm contracts and goes through eye wall replacement cycles. As of 11 AM hurricane force winds extend out 50 miles from the center. The shield of tropical storm force winds is much larger; these go out 185 miles. Irma will remain a very dangerous category 4 or 5 hurricane over the next 4 or 5 days. Water temperatures are warm and wind shear remains low for at least the next 3 to 4 days. There is a noticeable east shift in the 11 AM advisory. This is in line with an eastward trend in computer models. South/southeast Florida is still very much on track for possible major hurricane force winds, horrible storm surge, spin up tornadoes and heavy rain by early Sunday. This advisory shows the anticipated turn north further east and a bit quicker. The entire state of Florida up through the Carolinas need to stay on high alert for any forecast changes. While the track has shifted east, it is still pretty likely Irma will make landfall in the U.S..

06Z computer models clearly show an east shift under the influence of a weakness in the Atlantic ridge. While many models keep the center of Irma east of the state, numerous ensemble models still bring this dangerous hurricane up through south and southeast Florida Sunday. If this trend continues, South Carolina could see more impacts by Monday. This trend is a favorable one for the Tampa Bay area. If this holds, storm surge will be a non issue, but heavy rain and tropical storm force winds will still be felt across the area, mainly Sunday and early Monday. Remember the 5 day cone error is more than 200 miles. Things can change. Stay prepared and stay informed.

Irma is among the strongest hurricanes on record in the entire Atlantic Basin. Only 5 other hurricanes, including Wilma, have seen winds over 184 mph. It became the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic Basin outside of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico Tuesday morning. As of 5 PM the powerhouse storm maintains intensity as a strong category 5 with max sustained winds of 185 mph. Pressure is down to 926 mb as it barrels towards the northern Leeward Islands as it moves west at 15 mph. The wind field of the massive hurricane (more than 400 miles across) continues to grow in size. While hurricane force winds still extend out 60 miles from the center, tropical storm force winds now extend out 170 miles.

The northern Leeward Antilles will experience a direct hit Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Below is composite radar from BarbadosWeather.org. Notice a defined eye and impressive eye wall. Hurricane Hunters have been out there basically around the clock since Tuesday morning. The storm may weaken a little Tuesday night during a pending eye wall replacement cycle. Up next are the British and U.S. Virgin Islands followed by a close call for Puerto Rico late Wednesday into Thursday. The strongest damaging winds are east of the center of circulation. As Irma moves northwest the flow around the storm will bring a significant storm surge to the British and Virgin Islands and the northern coast of Puerto Rico. Storm surge will be even higher for Turks and Caicos and the southeast Bahamas. Up to a 15-20 foot surge is possible in these areas. Hispaniola and Cuba may disrupt the very dangerous hurricane and lead to some weakening. A category 4 hurricane takes aim at the Florida Keys and South Florida late Saturday and Sunday. Irma will likely be the strongest hurricane to strike these areas since Andrew in 1992. The 5 PM track from the National Hurricane Center has not changed much since early Tuesday.

All eyes are on Florida and the timing of a turn north early the weekend. Unfortunately, there are still some discrepancies in our two most reliable models. The 12Z GFS is still further east and a bit quicker. The 12Z European model is slower to turn north and is further west. Both models bring an intense major hurricane northward through the state through Monday. It is still too early to talk specific rainfall, wind, storm surge etc as Irma is still 5 days out from any impacts. That 5 day error is 225 miles. There is still a possibility the long-range track shifts further east or west.

Florida is likely to see major hurricane impacts this weekend and Monday. The question remains, if it heads further west, due north over the state, or further east. As a trough lifts out of the Northeast later this week the Bermuda High shifts east. That high then builds back in across the Atlantic. At the same time an upper level disturbance moves through the south central U.S.. Irma will lift north due to a weakness between these two features. The strength of both of those features is still up in the air.  Stay tuned and be prepared.