Right on cue with the start of August – the tropics are showing sings of life after a three week lull in the Atlantic Basin.

Chances of development continue to climb for the tropical wave we’ve been closely monitoring. The National Hurricane Center is giving it a 60% chance to form in the next 7 days.

Slow development is going to be the story – so it’s important to stay with the forecast in the coming days. If this develops it will be when the system is closer to the Bahamas.

The southeastern U.S., Greater Antilles and the Bahamas are where impacts look most likely at this point. It could just be wind and rain, or this could end up being a tropical system.

KEEP IN MIND: nothing has developed yet and models struggle with a storm’s strength and track before a low level center forms.

We will have a better idea in the coming days as the wave moves out of the dry air and into more favorable areas for development.

The wave is still several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles, producing limited storm activity thanks to the dry Saharan air. That’s why this area has a 0% chance to form in the next 2 days.

General track still favors a northwest motion, with models leaning towards the Bermuda High steering it into the SE instead of the Gulf of Mexico. Our exclusive Fox Models showing a surge of tropical moisture moving into Florida this weekend, likely late Saturday – Sunday.

At this point, record warm waters in the Atlantic Ocean and weak wind shear should work in the storm’s favor and allow it to strengthen later this week in the vicinity of the Bahamas.

Here’s the latest thinking on the timing:

Winds and seas associated with this tropical wave will increase northeast of the Leeward Islands Tuesday night into Wednesday, then move to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through Thursday.

From there, the wave will likely move across the Bahamas Friday and north-northeast of the Bahamas through Saturday night. Most likely impacts to the SE Coast will be this weekend.

Keep checking for updates!

Since Hurricane Beryl’s three landfalls in July, the tropics have been hitting snooze. Things are changing as we wait and watch a wave in the Atlantic.

The odds have increased – now a 50% chance it will develop over the next 7 days. This area of disturbed weather has slowly been trying to get its act together in the central Atlantic Ocean.

This area of disturbed weather could interact with an approaching tropical wave. Conditions are expected to be favorable for development later this week.

Disorganized storms are on the southern edge of a large plume of Saharan Dust, which has been keeping the tropics quiet.

The disturbance will encounter less of this dry Saharan air as it continues to move generally west-northwest.

There is still a lot of uncertainty on if this will even develop into a tropical depression. The NHC says, a tropical depression could form while the system is near the Greater Antilles or Bahamas.

If the storm develops, we’ll have a much better idea of where it will track. The Bermuda High will steer it either toward the Eastern Seaboard or into the Gulf of Mexico over the next 7-10 days.

This is several days out and the picture will become more clear in the coming days. The storm could have the ingredients in place to strengthen. Waters are plenty warm across the entire Atlantic Basin.

Wind shear has been strong the last few weeks, also limiting tropical development, but that’s changing as well. There won’t be much wind shear for this wave to interact with.

If this strengthens into a tropical storm, it will be named Debby and be the fourth named storm of the season.