Still watching Invest 91L over the central Caribbean. As of Wednesday afternoon, the National Hurricane center still pegs the chance development at 20% over the next 5 days.

This disturbance continues to battle with pockets of dry air and high wind shear. As it moves west-northwest over the next few days, conditions may become a little more favorable for some weak development as it moves into the SW Gulf. However, model trends over the last few days have been to keep this an open wave as it approaches the western Gulf Coast this weekend. Regardless of development, beneficial rains will be heading into parts of Texas and Louisiana.

Above: Wind shear over the Caribbean and SW Gulf remains high for now. Courtesy – University of Wisconsin

The main impact here will be rounds of slow-moving heavy rain this weekend and into early next week. Widespread totals of 3-5″ with isolated amounts up to 8″ can be expected. Any rain across south Texas will be a welcome sight as much of the area is dealing with a moderate to severe drought.

A disturbance sitting in the western Caribbean Sea is very disorganized and only has a low chance of development. Unfavorable upper level winds are keeping formation chance at 10% over the next 2 days. As the disturbance moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, conditions become slightly more favorable for development with a 20% over the next 5 days.

The disturbance will take a west to northwestward track over Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula. Heavy rainfall is forecast for areas in Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula.

None of the reliable computer models are developing the disturbance. They move it northwestward as a slug of deep tropical moisture.