On Thursday morning, NOAA released its updated outlook for the 2018 hurricane season. As expected, they have decreased their overall expectations – now expecting 9-13 named storms, with 4-7 becoming hurricanes, and 0-2 major hurricanes. These numbers are near to just below historical averages. The updated numbers do include the 4 named storms (2 hurricanes) we’ve already had this season.

The primary limiting factors will continue to be cooler than normal waters and unfavorable wind patterns across the much of the central Atlantic. In addition, a developing El Nino may further enhance unfavorable upper-level winds across this area toward the end of the season. All this being said, it’s important to stay prepared. Active season or not, all it takes is one storm.

Tropical Storm Debby formed Tuesday morning in the North Atlantic. It’s the best kind of storm… one that only bothers the fish. Debby will move north-northeast over the next day or so before dissipating over the far northern Atlantic.

Things remain very quiet across the rest of the Atlantic basin. There continues to be an abundance of dry air and cooler than normal sea-surface temperatures across the Central Atlantic, not to mention pockets of high wind shear. This main development region is typically in full bloom with activity at this time of the season, but the environment right now is much too harsh for storms to develop – not a bad thing!

On Thursday, the National Hurricane Center will issue their updated 2018 hurricane season outlook. Based on all the factors in play for the next couple months, we’d expect the updated outlook to show a near, to just below average forecast, with expectations likely tempered a bit from their preseason forecast issued in late May.