As of 11am Wednesday, a broad area of low pressure was located about 170 miles east-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this area this afternoon. We’ll likely see a tropical depression form late today or on Thursday. This is now being referred to as Potential Tropical Cyclone Two – which signifies the expectation of a tropical storm forming and affecting land areas within 48 hours.

Models are in very good agreement that this disturbance will move west toward Louisiana/Texas over the next 2-3 days, before making a northward turn. Current guidance leaves little question that Tropical Storm Barry will form, but how much it will intensify thereafter remains to be seen. We should get a better idea of this once recon gathers more data and an actual system forms. It should be noted that the current forecast from the National Hurricane Center intensifies this into a category 1 hurricane.

Tropical Storm watches are now up from the mouth of Mississippi River to Morgan City, LA, meaning that tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours. The watches will likely be expanded in the coming days.

It’s important to note that regardless of intensity, the main threat from this is going to be heavy rainfall that will likely lead to flooding in some areas of the central and western Gulf Coast. Interests in these area should monitor the progress of this storm closely and check back in with us here at MyFoxHurricane.com

This upcoming week we’ll be watching the northeastern Gulf closely for possible tropical development. This is something that models have started to get on board with over the last couple of days.

The setup is a trough, currently over near the mid-Mississippi river valley, that will be diving southeast toward north Florida. As this emerges over the northeastern Gulf, a surface low may start to spin up by the middle of the week.

The last few runs of the Euro model have been particularly consistent and shown a deeper low developing, while the GFS has lacked consistency and is showing a weaker low in recent runs. If anything does develop, it would likely stay weak – a tropical depression, or low-end tropical storm at most. Whether it’s just a blob of moisture or something more, models have been consistent in tracking it west along the northern Gulf Coast later in the week.

Above: Saturday 12Z Euro run valid for next Friday morning. Courtesy: tropicaltidbits.com

Above: Saturday 12Z GFS run valid for next Friday morning. Courtesy: tropicaltidbits.com

The biggest threat will be heavy rainfall through north and central Florida, westward along the north central Gulf Coast. We’ll keep you updated in the coming days.