An area of low pressure has already brought heavy rain to the Carolina coastline and more is on the way. We have been watching the low since it moved through northern Florida. Organization today is unlikely due to its proximity to land and the window for organization is narrow. It is headed out into the warmer waters of the Atlantic tomorrow with a 30% chance of development. .After a day or so in warmer water it will encounter cooler water, limiting its chance of further strengthening.

Today several more inches of rain are possible in the Outer Banks and North Carolina’s coast with the risk of flash flooding. But that will be the only impact to the United States as it heads away from the East Coast early next week.

A front has been stalled over northern Florida for the past several days, increasing moisture and rain in Tampa Bay. During hurricane season, these stationary fronts can spin up a disturbance leading to a tropical system. Although we are watching an area of disorganized showers & storms, development chances are minimal. It would be a slow development over the next several days.

Even if it did organize it wouldn’t change the forecast for the Georgia and Carolina coastlines as they are already looking at heavy rainfall. So while we will continue to monitor it, the impact will be heavy rain to parts of the East Coast with little development beyond that.

The rest of the tropics are also looking quiet. Dry air blankets the Atlantic Ocean into parts of the Caribbean. And strong wind shear extends off the coast of Africa. Both of these factors are keeping any tropical waves from organizing.