All eyes are on Tropical Storm Dorian as it continues WNW headed towards Puerto Rico & Hispaniola. Dorian passed over St. Lucia earlier this morning with some disruption to its winds, but overall it is in better shape than this time yesterday.

Currently the storm has 50 mph winds and is moving WNW at 13 mph. The current track has the system moving right through the space between Puerto Rico & Hispaniola. Although there will be land interaction on this path, it won’t have the same weakening effect we would see if it passed over the higher terrain in the Dominican Republic. Staying over the water would give it a better chance of holding together before it moves into an area with even more moisture.

Dorian is currently surrounded by dry air, which is hindering any significant quick development. Hurricane Hunter found some of the dry is now working its way into the system.

Tropical Storm Warnings as well as Hurricane Watches are in effect for Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Puerto Rico could begin seeing tropical storm or even hurricane conditions as early as tomorrow, the Dominican Republic by Wednesday night. These areas are looking at 4-6″ of rain with isolated amounts of 8″ which could lead to life threatening flash flooding. Dangerous swells are expected to begin on Wednesday.

It is too early to tell what impacts we will see in Tampa, we are in the wait and see period. The amount of land interaction Dorian encounters as it passes over the Greater Antilles will have significant effects on its strength. There is still wide model spread in the track moving into the weekend.

Tropical Depression 6 remains in the Atlantic with 35 mph winds. Little motion is expected today. It will begin to move north and then northeast on Wednesday. Its path will stay well off the East Coast through the rest of the week. It will likely become Tropical Storm Erin later today or Wednesday.

As of 8pm Monday evening, Tropical Storm Dorian was located about 140 miles ESE of St. Lucia. It’ll be moving into the Caribbean Sea over the next 12 hours as it continues its WNW motion.

Max sustained winds are at 60 mph. Tropical storm warnings are up are in effect for a portion of the Lesser Antilles, and tropical storm watches have been posted for many other eastern Caribbean islands – including Puerto Rico.

Dorian will continue its WNW track, in the general direction of Puerto Rico and island of Hispaniola, over the next 48 hours or so. At this point it’s still too early to talk about any possible impacts for the United States – for a few reasons.

The system continues to be surrounded by an abundance of dry air. So far this dry hasn’t been able infiltrate the circulation, but that may not hold true forever. There are also some pockets of higher wind shear in Dorian’s path that it may have to contend with depending on the exact timing of the storm.

The biggest factor right now really has to do with its track through the Greater Antilles. The island of Hispaniola has mountain peaks topping 10,000 feet, and has been known to shred tropical systems apart. That being said, a track over the eastern tip of the island or through the gap between it and Puerto Rico would allow Dorian to emerge relatively unscathed ahead of an approach on the Bahamas and Florida. We’re in a wait-and-see mode until that exact track becomes more apparent. By Thursday we should have a very good idea of what holiday weekend impacts Dorian may have on Florida. Stay tuned.