There is only one area of disturbed weather we are keeping tabs on in the Atlantic. A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic will approach conditions that are better suited for development near the Greater Antilles and the Lesser Antilles. This region now has a medium (40%) chance of formation over the next seven days.

Weather model support for cyclone development has slightly increased this morning, with most of them bringing the system near or north of the Lesser Antilles by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. From there, high pressure to its north would play a big role in its future path. The most popular scenario among these models shows this area of high pressure sliding east, allowing the storm to turn north before reaching the United States. While this is the current trend, it is very early in the forecast process and this could easily change.

If this becomes a tropical storm or hurricane, it would likely take the name “Ernesto”.

Over land, Tropical Depression Debby is continuing to weaken as it brings heavy rain and gusty winds to the northeast. Debby should become a post-tropical depression before the workweek ends.

Tropical Storm Debby has slowed down significantly since landfall Monday morning and has been causing extreme rainfall across the SE.

South Carolina has been getting slammed with the heaviest rain, with some spots getting over a foot of rainfall in just 2 days. Georgia and North Carolina are also picking up on big rain totals.

Here the latest track: Debby is still a tropical storm with sustained winds of 45 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles from the center.

The storm is crawling to the NE at 4mph, slowing down even more on Tuesday and Wednesday. By Friday, the storm starts to pick up some forward motion to the north-northeast.

Debby is forecast to weaken as it travels inland, but this storm will still bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the NE.