Hurricane Dorian now has winds of 105 mph and is a category 2 hurricane. It is skirting Florida’s east coast keeping the strongest hurricane force winds offshore. But tropical storm force winds are still being felt along the coast.

Even though the hurricane force winds are staying offshore in Florida, water is still a concern. Storm surge and big waves are impacting Florida’s east coast, with 5-7ft surge possible from Port Orange to Jacksonville. And 5-7ft surge is possible along the Georgia and Carolina coastlines as well. These areas are also looking at 3-10″ of rain. The Carolina’s should closely monitor Dorian’s progress as the center and strongest winds will get very close to the coastline as the storm moves northeast.

We are in the peak of hurricane season with 3 named storms in the Atlantic, a disturbance and another tropical wave is forecast to come off Africa’s coast that needs to be watched.

The tropical wave (in orange) is expected to emerge later today between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. It will be entering a favorable environment for development and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend. This area needs to be watched, but it will be 7-10 days before it potentially reaches the Caribbean. The other area in orange northeast of Dorian, is a disorganized disturbance but it could strengthen into a depression over the next couple days as it moves northeastward away from Bermuda. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of the disturbance.

Tropical Storm Fernand is sitting in the western Gulf and headed west into Mexico. It has 50 mph and will weaken as it moves inland later today. South Texas could see 2-4″ of rain with isolated 6″ totals.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle is sitting out in the Atlantic with 40 mph winds. It will continue to move northwest over the Atlantic into early next week with no threat to the United States.

Dorian has weakened to a category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds and higher gusts. Even though Dorian is no longer a category 5, it is still a powerful and dangerous hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend out 45 miles from the center and tropical storm winds extend out 160 miles.After a day sitting over Grand Bahama Island, Dorian is expected to make its northwestward turn today and begin moving. A trough heading to the east coast will steer Dorian to the north, paralleling Florida’s east coast. There is the potential for the Dorian to not make landfall in the lower 48, but there will still be storm surge along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas.

Even though the current track keeps the eye and therefore strongest winds offshore, the east coast will be impacted by storm surge and big waves. Beach erosion and coastal flooding is expected, much like the conditions the east coast saw when Matthew passed by the state. Some tropical storm force wind gusts are possible in eastern Polk and Highlands counties. Tampa will see breezy conditions today with scattered showers and storms.

We are in the peak of hurricane season and monitoring other areas in the tropics. We will likely see potential tropical cyclone 7, which is sitting in the southwestern Gulf become a Tropical Storm by tonight. It currently has 35 mph winds and is expected to bring 6-12″ of rain to parts of Mexico.

The trough of low pressure well east of Dorian could become a tropical depression by Thursday as it heads northward. After that, conditions are less favorable for development. Interests in Bermuda should monitor its progress. The area in red is another tropical wave likely to become a tropical depression later today. It will head northwest in the tropical Atlantic. Another wave (in orange) is forecast to emerge off the coast of Africa and could develop into a tropical depression late this week or weekend. It will move west to west-northwestward.