There is now a high (90%) chance of development over the next seven days for Invest 98L in the central Tropical Atlantic.

Satellite imagery has revealed that Invest 98L appears more organized and will have a great chance of formation over the next few days.

Weather models are highly confident that this system will reach or pass just north of the Lesser Antilles as we head into Tuesday and Wednesday of this upcoming week.

From here, the majority of our weather models (not all) show this storm strengthening and recurving to the north. This path would keep it east of the Contiguous United States. As we get more data and see how quickly it develops, we will continue to watch for any changes in this trend.

Invest 98L is currently over 2,700 miles away from our coastline, so we’ll have a long time to monitor it. The next name on our 2024 naming list is Ernesto.

We are continuing to keep tabs a disturbance in the central tropical Atlantic. This tropical wave has a medium (60%) chance of development over the next seven days but is unlikely to form within the next two days.

Weather models are still showing signs that this wave will attempt to organize as it approaches or reaches the Lesser Antilles. The American (GFS) and European (ECMFW) models each show this on Tuesday. 

Until it does or does not form, it’s difficult to determine where it would ultimately go next. The majority of weather models (not all) recurve this system to the north before it reaches the United States. Whether or not this happens will depend on the strength of this system, and how a variety of upper-level steering factors time out. 

We have plenty of time to monitor this, as it is roughly 3,000 miles away from our coast. The next name on this year’s storm naming list will be “Ernesto”.