Due to Tropical Depression Imelda, a life-threatening flooding situation has been unfolding over parts of Southeast Texas in the last 24 hours. Reminiscent of Harvey just two years ago, 3-day rainfall totals now exceed 3 feet in the hardest hit areas in and around Beaumont, Texas, with more than 2 feet of that total falling Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Water rescues are ongoing in these areas. The heavy rain should come to an end by Thursday night, but showers will persist through the day on Friday.

In the Atlantic, activity remains high. Hurricane Humberto passed north of Bermuda last night bringing a period of hurricane-force winds, heavy rain, and minor storm surge to the island. The storm is now heading north into the North Atlantic shipping channels.

Jerry is now a hurricane, and is located about 435 miles east of the Leeward Islands. There is a window for further strengthening today, but an increase in wind shear is expected tonight into tomorrow. This should weaken the storm a bit heading into the weekend. We have fairly good model agreement at this point that Jerry will continue on a west-northwest track into the weekend, passing just north of the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico before making a turn to the north. It should be noted though that if the system is able to maintain its intensity, a track much closer to or over these islands would be possible. In regards to the Bahamas, and southeastern U.S., impacts are unlikely at this point. However, we’ll be watching Jerry closely through the weekend and will keep you updated if anything changes.

An area of disturbed weather south of Hispaniola is unlikely to develop thanks to high wind shear, but it will bring periods of heavy rain to the Dominican Republic, Haiti and eastern Cuba over the next few days. This moisture is also likely to increase rain chances over parts of South Florida and the Keys this weekend.

Additional tropical waves continue to roll off the coast of Africa that will need to be monitored over the next couple of weeks.

Imelda, now a tropical depression, continues to pound southeastern Texas with heavy rainfall. Several inches of rain has already fallen, with more on the way today and Thursday. When all is said and done, expect widespread 6-12″ totals, with isolated amounts of up to 20″. Heavy rain and a significant threat of flash flooding will spread inland over eastern Texas during the next couple of days.

In the central Atlantic, Tropical Storm Jerry formed early this morning, and is currently located about 855 miles east of the Leeward Islands. The environment around Jerry is somewhat dry, but wind shear is low and will remain low for the next day or so. On satellite, it’s a well ventilated storm, and looks primed for at least some strengthening over the next 24 hours or so. Increasing shear should slow development somewhat later in the week.

The current track from the National Hurricane center has Jerry near the northern Leeward Island on Friday as a category 1 hurricane. It’s still too early to determine the severity of any impacts for those islands.

Long term, majority of model guidance indicates that Jerry will ultimately find a weakness in the ridge and follow in the wake of the departing Humberto – curving to the north, and moving safely out to sea. While this is the most likely scenario, this turn to the the north is still 4-5 days away, so we’ll be keeping close tabs on Jerry through the weekend.

Humberto will bring a period of hurricane-force winds to the island of Bermuda this evening through Thursday morning. A few inches of rain, along with a storm surge of 1-3 feet on the southern shore, can be expected.