Tropical Storm Erin forms in the Atlantic

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Tropical Storm Erin formed Monday morning with sustained winds up to 45 mph in the latest advisory.

Previously named Invest 97L, thunderstorms west of the Cabo Verde Islands have continued to organize despite Saharan dust concentrated nearby this disturbance.

The first cone is out for Tropical Storm Erin and shows it steadily strengthening.

Erin is moving west at 20 mph and will continue on this track the next few days. There is more uncertainty at the end of this week into the weekend.

The upper level steering will eventually support a curve north as it rides around the ridge of high pressure. There will be a dip in the jet stream that will help to nudge it north.

How far east of Florida and the Atlantic Coast will this happen? That is something we’re ironing out as we watch for this to form and see how model trends evolve.

Check back for updates as we closely monitor model trends on Tropical Storm Erin.

“Erin” Expected to Form This Week in the Atlantic

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A robust tropical wave (Invest 97L) will likely develop into a tropical depression or storm within the next few days. The National Hurricane Center now gives it a high 90% chance to develop within the next week.

While there is growing confidence that this system will stay out of the Caribbean Sea, it’s too early to confidently predict where it may go from there.

97L will be battling slightly cooler waters and pockets of Saharan dust over the next few days. By the time it nears the Lesser Antilles, it should move into a more favorable environment for strengthening.

Questions remain regarding the storm’s future strength and upper level steering that would impact its ultimate track. Additionally, weather models will become significantly more reliable after a storm actually forms.

For now, this disturbance is roughly 4,000 miles away from the mainland United States, giving us plenty of time to monitor its progress. “Erin” is the next name up on our storm naming list.

Meanwhile, a struggling Invest 96L (shown in yellow) in the central tropical Atlantic will have a low chance of developing within the next few days. Its formation would be inconsequential to the United States.