We are, once again, monitoring two disturbances in the Tropical Atlantic for development chances.

One tropical wave has just emerged off the coast of Africa. It has a low (20%) chance of formation over the next seven days. As of now, the vast majority of models that develop this system eventually turn it north and away from most landmasses.

Meanwhile, the odds of development for our central Atlantic tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles have increased. The National Hurricane Center has given this disturbance a medium (50%) chance of development over the next week.

There is increasing model agreement that this will slowly organize as it reaches the Caribbean and could become a tropical depression by early next week. It is too early to accurately speculate on what the long-range track of this system would be.

The Atlantic Basin is showing signs of life after a busy start, followed by an eerily quiet stretch to end August.

There are two areas we’re watching, both jumping on our radar in the last 48 hours.

One is in the main development region between the coast of Africa and Lesser Antilles. This has a low chance to develop at the end of this week – only 20%.

This isn’t a typical wave coming off the coast of Africa, but rather a disorganized area of thunderstorms that will move into a more favorable environment for strengthening. This area will generally move west-northwest the next few days at around 10-15 mph.

At the end of this week or early next week is likely when we see any development. That’s why the odds of formation remain low in the next 7 days and only 0% over the next 2 days.

If the system organizes into a tropical storm, it will be named Francine.

The second spot flagged by the NHC is an area of low pressure spinning a few hundred miles SE of Bermuda. A combination of dry air and hostile upper winds will limit much strengthening.

There is a 10% chance of development over the next 2 days and the next 7 days. It will generally move north to northeast around 10 mph.

The official peak of hurricane season is September 10th.