On Monday we were monitoring a weak area of low pressure off the coast of Cape Cod. I mentioned that if it had any chance of developing it needed to tap into the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. By late Monday afternoon it was doing just that. The National Hurricane Center started advisories on Subtropical Depression #4. This is because the system did not have purely tropical characteristics but was moving into an environment that it was possible to transition into a tropical system.

By noon on Tuesday, the Subtropical Depression had moved over warmer waters of the Gulf Stream and transitioned into a Tropical Storm. It became known as “Dolly” with winds of 45 mph. The prognosis for Dolly remains much the same regardless of whether it developed or not. It will continue to move northeastward and eventually move back over cooler waters once again. This will begin the transition away from a tropical system and it will become a non-tropical low or dissipate over cooler waters of the north Atlantic.

Meanwhile, we continue to watch a large plume of Saharan Dust move across the Caribbean. This will make its way into the Gulf of Mexico and as it continues to gain latitude will encounter westerly winds. These will help to move it over the state of Florida. This dust is very effective at suppressing tropical development. It also lends to colorful sunsets but can also lead to issue for those that are very sensitive to the extra particulate matter. It will be with us for a few days before it dissipates early next week.

Large plumes of Saharan Dust have been moving across the Atlantic and now moving into the Caribbean. These dust plumes are very effective in limiting convection in tropical waves and the formation of tropical systems. The very dense area of dust over Puerto Rico is making for a very dust and hazy sky. As this Saharan Air Layer continues westward it will become noticeable across the southeastern United States. It generally cuts down our rain chances for a few days and leads to some stunning sunsets.

Strong wind shear also continues across much of the Tropical Atlantic Basin. Much of the central and western Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico are virtually convection free with strong wind shear and very limited moisture with westward advancing tropical waves.

The only signs of life in the tropics are well north and not in a favored location for development. An area of low pressure several hundred miles off the coast of Cape Cod has been identified by the National Hurricane Center. They are giving a 20% chance of development over the next 2 to 5 days. Unless it can quickly tap into the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream this low has little chance of developing. Regardless of development it will continue to move over open waters and have no effect on land areas.