The National Hurricane Center began issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 in the western Gulf of Mexico late Thursday afternoon. This is something they started doing a few years ago, as it allows them to issue tropical storm watches/warnings when a storm is expected to form close to land. A tropical depression is expected to form tonight or on Friday, and it has a good chance of strengthening into Tropical Storm Claudette before coming ashore in Louisiana early Saturday.

Regardless of strength, the biggest threat is going to be heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding for parts of the northern Gulf Coast up through the Southeast over the weekend. This is going to be a lopsided system with the heaviest rain falling east of the center. Several inches are likely to fall over a widespread area; with isolated maximum amounts up to 12 inches.

A tropical storm warning is in effect from Intracoastal City, LA to the AL/FL border.

It’s looking more and more likely that at least a tropical depression will form in the western Gulf before the end of the work week, but we can completely rule out a weak Tropical Storm Claudette just yet. Either way, the big issue is going to be heavy rain for parts of the northern Gulf Coast over Father’s Day Weekend.

Hurricane Hunters are currently scheduled to investigate the area on Thursday. Between now and then, the odds of development are somewhat low as land interaction continues. However, as it begins to move north late Thursday and into Friday we should start to see some development.

Models are in fairly good agreement that several inches of rain will be possible east of where the center comes ashore. That should bring the heaviest rainfall up through southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and parts of Alabama. Keep in mind, the rain that does fall in these locations will come down fast – within the span of 24-36 hours. So, localized flash flooding will be a big concern.