The watching and waiting game continues for Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 (fancy name for tropical wave close to development). The disturbance has now entered the Caribbean Sea and there’s been an uptick in convection over the last 24 hours.

As of 11am Wednesday, the Hurricane Hunters still haven’t found a well-defined low level center. As soon as that feature becomes apparent, we’ll be able to upgrade this to Tropical Storm Isaías.

Not having an official storm yet is problematic when trying to forecast tropical systems because model guidance is much less reliable when there isn’t a center for the model to use as a starting point. We’ve seen this already over the last two days as this disturbance has moved further south than what models have suggested. Where the center actually forms will have a lot to do with the storm’s eventual track and intensity – especially true when land interaction and areas of high shear are in play. Once the storm forms, we’ll start to get a clearer picture of how Isaías will evolve, and what impacts there may for certain areas.

For now, there’s no reason to get too worked up about this. Stay informed, stay prepared as always, and check back in with us over the next few days.

The fast-paced 2020 hurricane season rolls on. This week we’ll be keeping a close eye on Invest 92L – likely to become our next named storm – as it nears the Caribbean. The next name on the list? Isaias [ees-ah-EE-ahs].

The bottom line right now is that this is still a few thousand miles away, and we have several days to watch it. In the United States there is no cause for concern yet.

It’s always tough to lend much credence to any model output until a storm actually forms. That being said, at the moment there does seem to be some consensus for a track near, or just north of the northern Caribbean Islands. In that scenario, a northward turn out to sea before reaching the U.S. becomes more likely.

The quicker the system develops in the next few days, the more northern track it’s likely to take. If it takes its sweet time to get organized, it’s likely to take a more southern track through the Caribbean Sea. We’ll check back in a couple days and go from there.