Odds of development continue to rise (now at 80%) for a tropical wave in the eastern tropical Atlantic.

The majority of weather models develop this into at least a tropical depression within the next week.

While battling dry air in the short term, it will eventually track into a more favorable environment with warmer sea surface temperatures as it nears the Leeward Islands. These islands will need to monitor the progress of this system carefully over the coming days.

A weaker system (disturbance or tropical depression) would likely track farther west, while a quickly organizing and strengthening tropical storm or hurricane would likely be steered north quickly.

It is moving very slowly (10mph at times) across the central tropical Atlantic. Most long range models eventually pull this system north well before reaching Florida, although we will have more clarity and accuracy with our weather models when we actually have a storm to track. We have 10+ days to monitor this in the mainland United States before this would bring us any impacts.

The next name on our 2025 storm naming list is Gabrielle.

The tropical wave we’ve been watching is slowly getting organized and the chance for it to form is now up to 70% in the next 7 days.

The disturbance is still about a week away from the Caribbean Islands and will be moving west-northwest the next few days. It’s currently just south of the Cabo Verde islands fighting off some Saharan dust.

There is a good chance this becomes a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Gabrielle as it moves into an area more favorable for strengthening by later this week.

The steering will continue to guide the area west but long-term models highlight a series of strong dips in the jet stream that would help protect Florida and the East Coast.

We could see a track similar to Erin with a curve north in the Atlantic, near or east of the Bahamas. A westerly path with more implications for the islands is not out of the question.

We’re looking out 7-10 days so we’ll be watching how fast it starts moving, what the steering guidance will be during that timeframe, and how model trends evolve once it forms.