It has been the best case scenario for Florida, with Isaias staying safely offshore as it moved north on Sunday. Through the day the storm has lacked organization, but continues to produce vigorous deep convection.

It will be battling some southwesterly shear as it heads north toward the Carolinas; but feeding off the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, some slight strengthening is possible – enough to possibly reclaim hurricane intensity.

A landfall is looking likely either in NE South Carolina or SE North Carolina late Monday night. Those in these areas need to be preparing for tropical storm-force winds in addition to a storm surge of 2-4 feet, especially near and east of where the storm ultimately comes ashore.

Thereafter, Isaias will continue moving north up I-95 bringing wind and rain all they up into New England.

It’s been an up and down day for this storm. At times, bursts of convection have hinted things trying to get further organized, but ultimately shear and some drier air have won out. As of 11pm Saturday, max winds were at 70 mph and the intensity shouldn’t change a whole lot as Isaias moves up the east coast of Florida on Sunday.

The worst of the weather remains on its northern and eastern sides. While it’s possible the center of the storm stays just offshore, those along the coast need to be prepared for a glancing landfall.

Hurricane warnings are in effect from Boca Raton, north to the Volusia/Flagler county line. Storm surge in those areas may be as high as 4 feet, especially if the center tracks right up the coast.

Hurricane-force wind gusts will also be also be possible right at the coastline in these warned areas, with max wind speeds lowering the further west in the state you go. For example, around Tampa Bay max wind gusts will only be on the order of 20-30 mph.