It’s been about four and a half weeks since we last had anything meaningful to track in the Atlantic. Large plumes of Saharan dust, pockets of high wind shear, and even below normal sea-surface temperatures in spots can be thanked for this long quiet stretch. That’s great news, but at the same time we can’t lose sight of the the fact that the most active part of the hurricane still lies ahead.

While it’s likely to stay quiet for at least the next week or two, there are factors in play which could certainly lead to the peak months of the season being more active than normal – most notably the likelihood (65-70% probability) of a gradually strengthening La Niña. La Niña is typically associated with lower than normal levels of wind shear across the Atlantic. This would be three straight years of La Niña conditions during peak hurricane season, which is actually pretty rare.

At the end of the day, nothing changes in how you should prepare. It’s simple, have a plan in place for you and your family that covers all the bases, and you can rest easy whether or not something comes our way.

We are nearly 2 months into hurricane season and so far, we are doing good. At this point, we’ve crossed 3 names off the list – Alex , Bonnie and Colin. Next up would be Danielle. However, there is no sign of any tropical development for at least the next 5 days per the National Hurricane Center.

To thank, plumes of Saharan Dust aloft which continue to move westward across the Atlantic. The dry, dusty air limits shower and storm activity and can work against tropical formation.

While June and July tend to be rather quiet in terms of named storms, climatology tells us activity ramps up notably heading into August and September especially, which is the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.