As of 8pm Saturday evening, the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located about 40 miles west of Naples.

It has been producing some nasty squalls across SW Florida and the Keys today, and will now track northwest across the Gulf toward the northern Gulf Coast.

A hurricane watch is in effect from Grand Isle, LA to the AL/FL border. Folks in these areas need to be paying close attention to this storm as we fine tune the track and intensity forecast.

The environment is pretty favorable for steady strengthening aside from pockets of moderate wind shear. There is certainly no lack of warm water, with sea-surface temperature running 85-90°. This should become a hurricane as it nears the coast Monday night/Tuesday morning.

Wind and surge issues are likely near the coast, with peak surge upwards of 6 feet near and just east of where the center comes ashore.

The most far-reaching impact will be heavy rainfall and flooding. As the storm’s forward speed slows and it merges with a front over the Southeast, some areas could receive more than a foot of rain through the middle of the week.

It’s busy all across the Atlantic right now, but other than Sally, the only other storm expected to impact any land areas in the near future is Paulette – which is likely to become a significant hurricane and pass very near or directly over Bermuda late Sunday night.

Things happen fast in the tropics, and just like that we have a tropical depression that will be moving across South Florida and into the Gulf on Saturday.

For Central and South Florida, especially on the west coast of the state, this doesn’t really change much for the weekend forecast.

Those in these areas should expect off and on showers and storms, with the potential for localized flooding in some locations thanks to recent heavy rains. No real impacts beyond this are expected for the Peninsula, as the storm will be moving away as it develops.

It’s a bit of a different story for the northeast Gulf Coast. Areas from the Florida Panhandle, west to the mouth of the Mississippi, need to be watching this closely for track shifts and intensity changes over the weekend. The environment is pretty favorable for development in the eastern Gulf, with generally low wind shear and very warm water. It’s not out of the question that this becomes a hurricane, especially if it slows down a bit as expected and spends more time over the water. You’ll want to check back with us for updates through the weekend.