As of 5pm Monday, Tropical Storm Elsa was located about 45 miles southeast of Havana, Cuba and will be moving into the Gulf of Mexico this evening.

While there will be some westerly shear across the eastern Gulf for the storm to deal with, some strengthening is certainly not out of the question. In fact, most model guidance is suggesting some slight strengthening as it moves north. While the chances are slim, it’s not out of the question that Elsa reaches hurricane intensity at some point. Tropical Storm warnings are in effect up and down Florida’s west coast.

There is high forecast confidence that Elsa will track near or just off Florida’s west coast as it moves north. With it being a lopsided system, this will bring the threat for localized heavy rainfall and isolated tornadoes to most of the Florida peninsula. It has been pretty wet around the state recently, so additional heavy rain could bring about areas of freshwater flooding.

While gusty winds will be present in many rain bands, the strongest wind gusts (generally 50-70+ mph) will be confined to areas closest to the coast.

The extent of coastal flooding from storm surge is still a bit in question at this moment, simply because track differences of 40-50 miles can make a big difference in the amount of surge at particular locations. This is due to the angle and duration of onshore flow. At this point, it would be wise for those in coastal areas to be prepared for the possibility of up to 3-5 feet of water above normal tide levels. The tide will be coming in late Wednesday night, which will play a role as well. For those that remember the coastal flooding we had during Tropical Storm Eta last November, this could end up being very similar.

We have a ragged looking Elsa south of Cuba Sunday afternoon. It’s been a challenge for the Hurricane Hunters to keep track of low-level center, and this may be a case where we have a new center form under one of the many areas of convection. That could play a big in the ultimate track toward and over Florida.

At this point, we certainly expect impacts across most of central and south Florida in some form. For South Florida that would come during the day Tuesday… Central Florida Tuesday night… and northeast Florida Wednesday morning. Those impacts will include tropical storm wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall, and isolated tornadoes. Coastal flooding from storm surge (likely 2-4 ft above normal tide levels) will also be possible near and south of where the center of the storm comes ashore. Due to most of the impacts being east of the center of the storm, the exact track will determine location specific impacts. This is something we should get a really good idea of over the next 24 hours or so.

If you live anywhere in central or south Florida, you should be preparing for possible tropical storm conditions for at least a period time. As a comparison, this could end up being very similar to Tropical Storm Eta last November. The best way to get ready for tropical storm conditions is simply by securing loose items around your house (trash cans, pool toys/chairs, etc.). We’ll keep you posted.