As of the 5pm advisory on Saturday evening, the center of Tropical storm Ian was located a couple hundred miles south of Jamaica. The storm is still moving west along the southern edge or a ridge to the north, but a turn to the northwest should take place on Sunday.

Just looking the satellite imagery you can see that the system has definitely gotten more organized today as expected. The northeasterly shear of the last few days is no longer having an effect. With no wind shear, very minimal land interaction, and incredibly deep warm water Ian will strengthen without a doubt rather quickly the rest of the weekend into early next week. In fact, there rather higher likelihood that it undergoes a period of rapid intensification – that is an increase of at least 35 mph in wind speeds within a 24 hour period.

With respect to track beyond 3 days or so, there remains a high degree of uncertainty. Afternoon models run today haven’t provided much clarity. There was a noticeable shift west in both the GFS and Euro runs – the GFS continuing to be the further west of the two. That being said, there is still a considerable spread amongst there ensemble members. We’ll see if the trend continues in upcoming runs later tonight and tomorrow. For now, the National Hurricane Center has bumped the latest track slightly to the west. We must stress that the entire Florida Gulf Coast needs to be on guard and paying close attention to this storm.

Tropical Storm Ian has an asymmetric appearance on satellite this morning due northerly shear which continues to plague the storm. As of the 11am Advisory, Ian has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and is moving west at 15 mph. Pressure is 1003 mb. Ian is expected to strengthen this weekend as it passes south of Jamaica and approaches the Cayman Islands, where a Hurricane Watch has been issued. 

By Monday, Ian is forecast to reach hurricane intensity as it approaches the western portion of Cuba. Ian is expected to move into an environment favorable for rapidly intensification due to the light wind shear and above average water temperatures in its path. With only limited land interaction over Cuba, Ian could reach major hurricane status as it emerges in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico next week. 

While a direct impact somewhere in Florida is becoming more and more likely next week, it is still difficult to know exactly where this will be. The latest official track has shifted slightly to the west with the latest update from the National Hurricane Center. However, nearly the entire state of Florida remains in the cone of uncertainty. It’s important to keep in mind the long-term average day 4 and 5 track errors are around 150-200 miles.

The exact impacts we will see will be determined by the exact track Ian takes. While that is not set in stone, it is still a good idea to finalize plans this weekend, in the event they will need to be implemented.