It has been the common theme over the past few days, wind shear and dry air will limit Potential Tropical Cyclone One from organizing. Being early on in the hurricane season there is still a lot of strong upper level winds over the Gulf of Mexico and plenty of drier air in the mid levels of the atmosphere. The outcome has not been a surprise, a tropical disturbance that continues to struggle to develop a well defined center of circulation.

The wind shear will continue to plague this system for its trip over Florida which will continue to limit its ability to organize and strengthen. The second major issue this system is facing is dry air. Tropical systems feed off of warm, moist air. Dry air chokes off the moisture feeding the storm. Dry air is quickly wrapping around the western side of this storm which is not allowing it to develop that ring of storms around the center. This will also lead to a rapid improvement in weather conditions once the limited center it has passes by.

This leaves only one main issue to watch for this storm. Rainfall. The rains will continue over south Florida and at times there will be tropical downpours which will add up over time and lead to the possibility of flooding. Because of the structure of the storm and the dry air which will quickly fill in behind the storm limiting wrap around bands of rain, there will be a sharp dividing line between heavy rain and who gets hardly any rain from this storm.

Color satellite imagery at sunset shows the strong convection remains well displaced from the center to the east and the lack of any convection on the entire western side of the storm. It is possible that this system does not become a tropical storm prior to landfall in Florida. We will continue to wait and see if this becomes Tropical Storm Alex.

It did not take long to get the Atlantic Hurricane Season underway. On the second day of the season we now have advisories being issued on what will likely become Tropical Storm Alex by Friday. Wind shear continues to be an issue for this system and will continue to present a hostile environment over the next couple of days.

Large areas of convection have been bursting well to the east of the broad area of low pressure. The center appears to be forming closer to the northern tip of the Yucatan. The disorganized system with the lack of a well defined center presents a forecasting challenge for the various computer models to pinpoint the exact track. There continues to be a spread in the various model guidance because of the disorganized nature of this developing system.

There is a distinct possibility that we will see the center of this storm jumping around or reforming as it continues to evolve and move toward the Florida coastline. This will result in adjustments to the eventual track of what looks to become Tropical Storm Alex. The strongest portion, with the heaviest rainfall is the right hand side of the storm which still puts the strongest side of this storm over south Florida. Shifts in the track one way or the other could bring more rain over central Florida or lessen our rain coverage. South Florida could see between 4-8 inches of rainfall with isolated areas of up to 12 inches of rain.

The rainfall will begin to spread over the state on Friday and by the afternoon we could see some rain overspreading central Florida since much of this storm is displaced to the east. Saturday will be a wet an breezy day with torrential rains over south Florida. This will be followed by quick clearing and drier conditions on Sunday.

The sun setting over the Gulf and Caribbean this evening reveals the intense convection on the eastern side of this storm and a center beginning to form just north of the Yucatan peninsula.