Tropical Storm Julia formed just north of Colombia early Friday. Wind shear has been keeping the storm from intensifying too much thus far, but that shear is expected to ease soon. With very warm waters ahead, strengthening is likely leading up to landfall along the coast of Nicaragua on Sunday morning.

While a storm surge of 2-4 feet is expected along the coast of Nicaragua north of the landfall point, it is the heavy rain that will bring the biggest problems. Isolated rainfall totals of up to 15″ will lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Land interaction will dissipate the storm over central America /southern Mexico early next week, but it’s possible the remnants end up in the southwestern Gulf thereafter and end up interacting with an arriving cold front. While the chances of redevelopment are slim, we’ll be keeping a close eye on it.

Tropical Depression 12 formed on Tuesday evening in the eastern Atlantic. It will be no threat to land, and in fact will likely dissipate in the next day or two thanks to strong southwesterly shear and dry air.

The other area we’re watching is a disturbance just north of Venezuela. If that sounds familiar it’s nearly identical to where Ian was about two weeks ago before that storm developed. The good news is that the steering flow that lies ahead is totally different and as a result this will be no threat to the U.S.

Development is likely though, and odds are we’ll be tracking a named storm early next week headed toward Central America or the Yucatan Peninsula.