We are closely monitoring development chances in the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center has increased the odds of formation to 40% within the next seven days.

This development would stem from the Central American Gyre, a seasonal region of low pressure that can occasionally spin up more focused areas of low pressure.

The organized low can then strengthen into a named storm. Weather models are indicating the growing chances for this process to occur later this month. If that development were to form in the Caribbean, it would likely be pulled north or northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. There are still a number of unsolved variables that would shape the system’s path beyond that point.

Thus, it is too early to speculate on exactly where this would head next within the Gulf. The Gulf coast will need to carefully monitor the progress of this slowly organizing system over the next week or two.

Now is as good a time as any to ensure you have a hurricane kit and plan in place as we are still within what has statistically been our most active month of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Tropical storm warnings have been issued for portions of the Carolinas ahead of Potential Tropical Cyclone 8. Tropical storm-force winds, flash flooding, coastal flooding, and high surf will be its main hazards beginning tonight and continuing for the next few days.

This system will take the name “Helene” if it organizes before landfall.

Models have been in good agreement on the potential locations it would move on shore. Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 is not a threat to Florida.

Meanwhile, we still have Gordon in the central tropical Atlantic. Gordon is a tropical depression and will likely remain out at sea after curving away from the United States later this week.