Odds slowly increase for an area to develop in the western Caribbean/Gulf. This could become a named storm with gradual strengthening expected. Development chances are up to 50% over the next 7 days.

The area to watch will be moving over deep warm waters, which will offer plenty of fuel to tap into. The blue line shows the track of Hurricane Helene, which strengthened as it moved right over this area of high heat potential.

It’s too soon to talk details on strength or track. By the middle of this week, we’ll have a better idea. Many models are indicating that something will form in the western Caribbean before traveling into the Gulf of Mexico.

It looks like a front late next week will be part of the steering flow that would guide this area. But there is a lot up in the air. For now, we’re watching it and will keep you updated.

The Atlantic remains active to start October. There are 2 other waves off the coast of Africa we’ll be tracking in the week ahead.

The good news is that both Hurricane Isaac and Tropical Storm Joyce will be no impact to land.

High water and historical storm surge has been recorded across Tampa Bay from Hurricane Helene passing about 100 miles off our coast.

We talked about the storm surge being the biggest impact from this storm and that’s exactly what we’re seeing as preliminary numbers are coming in. For many Tampa Bay areas, these surge values set new records.

Helene made landfall near Perry, FL with 140 MPH winds as a powerful Category 4 hurricane. Landfall was just after 11:00 PM Thursday.

Helene had a massive wind field on approach to landfall, with tropical-storm-force winds extending 350 miles from the storm’s center. That is why impacts are far reaching, with power outages spanning the state.

Water levels are receding this morning but river levels are still at flood level for some spots, especially the Alafia River.

With the tide coming back in again later this morning – afternoon, there are still concerns about high water around the area.

This was a fast storm, so rainfall was not nearly as big of a concern. Especially compared to Tropical Storm Debby earlier this season causing record flooding from slow-moving heavy rainbands. The Panhandle up into Georgia is where the heaviest rain fell from Helene.

Helene is the 4th storm to make a Gulf landfall this hurricane season and the 2nd to hit Florida. Look at how close those two storms made landfall – both in Florida’s Big Bend but Helene was much stronger.