The odds of tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico have slightly risen back to a medium (40%) chance within the next week.

Several weather models have shown the potential for the remnants of a Tropical Depression Eleven in the Pacific to lift into the Gulf of Mexico and provide a more distinct area of low pressure for development. This is an early trend in the models and will need to be watched for consistency. There is no imminent threat for development, and this would be something for us to monitor into the middle/end of next week.

Regardless of formation, the Florida Peninsula is still expected to see elevated rain chances to end the weekend and start next week.

In the central Atlantic, we still have Kirk and Leslie.

Kirk is a powerful category 4 hurricane and Leslie is a strengthening tropical storm. Each of these systems are expected to turn away from Florida.

Odds slowly increase for an area to develop in the western Caribbean/Gulf. This could become a named storm with gradual strengthening expected. Development chances are up to 50% over the next 7 days.

The area to watch will be moving over deep warm waters, which will offer plenty of fuel to tap into. The blue line shows the track of Hurricane Helene, which strengthened as it moved right over this area of high heat potential.

It’s too soon to talk details on strength or track. By the middle of this week, we’ll have a better idea. Many models are indicating that something will form in the western Caribbean before traveling into the Gulf of Mexico.

It looks like a front late next week will be part of the steering flow that would guide this area. But there is a lot up in the air. For now, we’re watching it and will keep you updated.

The Atlantic remains active to start October. There are 2 other waves off the coast of Africa we’ll be tracking in the week ahead.

The good news is that both Hurricane Isaac and Tropical Storm Joyce will be no impact to land.