Tropical Depression Eighteen is now spinning in the south-central Caribbean Sea. This is expected to become Tropical Storm Rafael Monday or early Tuesday on approach to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.

The depression has jogged a bit more right compared to the initial track – but winds have held at 35 mph.

It will start to turn northwest, taking the center near/south of Jamaica Monday night and passing the Caymans by late Tuesday. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands, Tropical Storm Warning for Jamaica, and a Hurricane Watch for parts of Cuba.

Tropical Depression 18 is forecast to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane and move across western Cuba Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions will start in the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon, and across western Cuba early Wednesday.

This low pressure area has developed a well-defined center and deep convection is slowly becoming more organized, especially on the south and east side of the circulation.

This is expected to steadily strengthen until it reaches Cuba as low wind shear, high moisture along with warm waters are all there.

Models remain in solid agreement with the storm’s track towards Cuba through Wednesday.

When the system reaches the Gulf of Mexico at the end of this week, the steering currents get a bit tricky. That’s why we see the models start to spread out and confidence is lower.

The model consensus takes this towards Louisiana.

On this current track, winds and surge are not a concern for the Florida west coast. Scattered gusty rain and storms will move across the state Wednesday and Thursday.

The overall trend west through the Gulf will mean fewer impacts in Florida but we will watch this for any changes.

The good news is heat content is much lower in the Gulf compared to the Caribbean, and in some spots sea surface temperatures are in the upper 70s. Tropical systems thrive in 80° waters or warmer.

The storm will also run into strong shear and dry air in the Gulf, which is expected to weaken it ahead of landfall.

We could see Tropical Storm Watches issued for the Florida Keys later today. More updates to come!

The odds are high for a system in the Caribbean to strengthen within the next few days. The area is now designated Invest 97L by the National Hurricane Center.

The NHC has upgraded the chances to 80% that this forms over the next 7 days. There’s also a high chance it could develop by the end of this weekend.

The broad low pressure area in the central Caribbean is currently just producing disorganized storms. Sustained winds are 25mph.

The other area of interest just north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola has much lower develop odds. Slow development is possible over the weekend, but this area is likely to be absorbed by the stronger tropical wave to its south.

By Tuesday, these two areas are expected to merge into one system near Cuba.

Once Invest 97L is near Cuba, the models start to spread out significantly as the steering flow gets tricky.

This area will move into the Gulf of Mexico around the middle or end of the week. But from there, models take it anywhere from Florida’s West Coast to Mexico.

So here’s the big picture: a ridge across the SE will block the area from moving north.

Once it gets into the Gulf, exactly where a dip in the jet stream is will be a key component to guide the storm.

The good news is oceanic heat content is much cooler in the Gulf compared to what it was in August/September. The Caribbean has much more heat in comparison, but Gulf waters are less favorable to sustain a tropical system.

Other factors the system will have to battle in the Gulf: drier air and hostile upper winds. A cold front dropping south to the Gulf Coast will increase wind shear, which will limit development.

Many models are keeping this as a tropical storm, but there is still uncertainty in the potential strength. We will watch it and keep you updated.

Rafael is the next name in line.