Tropical Storm Leslie is still moving very slow in the central Atlantic with no direct impacts to land. We are now watching an area in the Caribbean for possible development later this week.

A broad area of low pressure is generating disorganized showers and storms. It has a 20% of development over the next 5 days as it moves into the western Caribbean. It it too early to tell if it will affect our area, but we will be monitoring it closely.

October is the time of year where our focus shifts from the Atlantic to the Caribbean sea for tropical development.

Tropical Storm Leslie has changed little over the past several hours. It still has a ragged eye feature with deep convection focused in a curved band wrapped from northeast to southwest of the storm. Slow movement to the southwest continues and it will likely reach hurricane status by tonight or Wednesday. By Thursday, Leslie will turn back to the north over cooler water and into drier air, steady weakening is forecast as it turns east into the weekend.

The main impact to land areas from Leslie continues to be the large swells along the East Coast, Bermuda, Bahamas, Greater and Lesser Antilles. Towards the end of the week, swells will begin to increase near the New England and Atlantic Canadian coastlines.

Tropical Storm Leslie is slowly getting better organized and currently has winds of 60 mph. The storm is looking more symmetric with convection developing on the west side and fragmented bands on the east side. Even though the Leslie is expected to strengthen it will remain over the central Atlantic, with no direct impacts to land areas.

The slow motion to the southwest at 5 mph will continue for the next few days as it resides on the east side of an area of high pressure. By Thursday, a shortwave trough will cause Leslie to move north northeast back over cooler upwelled waters. As it turns back to the north, conditions become less favorable and it will weaken again.

The storm is moving into an area of lower wind shear, which has allowed it to develop more. Wind shear remains light as it drifts south into slightly warmer water over the next few days. Leslie will likely reach hurricane status in the more favorable environment.

Even though there are no direct land impacts from Leslie, the storm is generating large swells along the east coast, Bermuda, Bahamas, Greater and Lesser Antilles. Ongoing dangerous surf and rip currents will extend into the middle of the week.