Erin is still on track to become the first and likely the first major hurricane of the season.

The tropical storm is slightly stronger and more organized today. Hurricane Hunters will be flying into the storm this evening to gather new data.

Forecast guidance remains steady, and a track well east of Florida still appears highly likely. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northern Leeward Islands this weekend as Erin passes nearby.

Beyond that point, there’s more variability in the forecast. Potential impacts along the U.S. East Coast and Bermuda next week will depend on Erin’s exact path. While a direct landfall appears unlikely at this time, a strong hurricane passing close enough could still bring coastal surge, dangerous surf, and rip currents. For now, the majority of weather models continue to keep Erin’s center east of the United States. Erin is still about 2,000 miles from the mainland U.S. (giving us several days to monitor any changes) and has not yet begun its expected northward turn. We’ll have a clearer picture of its path in the days ahead.

Meanwhile, Invest 98L still has a small chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm before moving ashore along the coastline of Mexico or Texas.

Regardless of development, it is not expected to become a strong system and will bring no impacts to Florida.

The next name on the 2025 storm naming list is “Fernand.”

All eyes remain on Tropical Storm Erin as it continues to push across the central Atlantic.

Erin should become the first hurricane of the season before the week ends, and weather models are now leaning toward it steering well east off the east coast of Florida next week.

Residents in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the immediate progress of this system closely. While confidence in the forecast track is increasing, it’s still too early to determine potential impacts for the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, or other parts of the eastern U.S. coastline.

The forecast is becoming clearer with each update, and the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly through Erin on Thursday to collect crucial data that will help fine-tune the track and intensity outlook. Warm ocean temperatures and low wind shear along Erin’s path are expected to support steady strengthening in the coming days. If the high-pressure ridge to the north weakens as expected, it would open a pathway for Erin to curve northward.

We are additionally watching the Bay of Campeche for a disturbance with a low (20%) chance of development. Early indications suggests a general a northwest movement for anything that forms there in the short term. Regardless, this wave is not expected to bring any impacts to Florida.

“Fernand” is the next name up on our 2025 storm naming list.