Jerry, Karen, and Lorenzo on the map today – along with an area in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. While it’s busy, there are no immediate threats to the United States.

Jerry, now a post-tropical cyclone will slide just north of Bermuda over the next 24 hours. Impacts will be limited to a few tropical storm-force wind gusts and a few downpours.

Lorenzo is likely to become a major hurricane in the coming days over open ocean. It will pose no threat to land.

The disturbance near the Yucatan Peninsula is unlikely to have significant development. It will move west toward eastern Mexico, bringing some pockets of heavy rain through the weekend.

That leaves us with Karen. So far, the storm continues to struggle to maintain bursts of convection and further organize. There is a pretty good consensus in regards to track over the next 3-5 days with Karen moving north-northeast, getting blocked by the building ridge to the north, and then beginning a west-southwest motion this weekend. Intensity forecast remains the biggest question at this point, with multiple factors in play. Latest runs of the Euro and GFS suggest Karen will dissipate after beginning its move to the west; while others suggest the storm will maintain, if not intensify during this part of its journey. At this point, we’re leaning toward the weaker solution, with the possibility of dissipation, given the moderate-high wind shear that should be in place over Florida and the Bahamas next week. That being said, you’ll still want to check back for any updates in the coming days.

Karen is not a healthy looking storm this evening. Just about all of the convection is displaced south of the center of the storm for now, and wind shear will be increasing over the next 24 hours as it moves north toward Puerto Rico. This is good news for that island and the Virgin Islands, as Karen should remain a weak storm as it moves through on Tuesday.

Once the system moves north of these islands by the middle of the week, things get interesting. A strong ridge developing to the north will likely keep the door closed, so to speak, for a track out to sea. So, it’s quite possible a westward turn happens and we end up with a storm heading toward the Bahamas and Florida about a week from now. That’s a long time when it comes to tropical forecasting, and things can and likely will change. We’re not at the point yet where this is something to be concerned about in the U.S., but it is something we’ll be watching closely this week, so be sure to check back for updates.

Tropical Storm Jerry should pass just north of Bermuda in a couple of days. This will bring some gusty winds and rain to the island, but no major impacts are expected. Lorenzo is likely to form just off the coast of Africa at really any point in the next 24 hours. It’ll be on the map for a while, but should ultimately stay out to sea.