The tropical wave we’ve been watching now has a low chance to form. The odds for Invest 91L are down to 30%.

The disturbance has been battling dry air and moving so slowly that it has not been able to pull away from the dust and strengthen. This Saharan air layer has about 50% less moisture, which really limits a tropical system.

Invest 91L will continue moving west around 10-15 mph but many models don’t develop it further.

If it holds together, the disturbance will be near the Lesser Antilles by Tuesday – Wednesday.

So far this season, we’ve had 6 named storms and Hurricane Erin. Gabrielle is the next name in line.

The G named storm typically forms on September 3rd.

The tropical wave we’ve been watching is slowly getting organized and the chance for it to form is now up to 70% in the next 7 days.

The disturbance is still about a week away from the Caribbean Islands and will be moving west-northwest the next few days. It’s currently just south of the Cabo Verde islands fighting off some Saharan dust.

There is a good chance this becomes a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Gabrielle as it moves into an area more favorable for strengthening by later this week.

The steering will continue to guide the area west but long-term models highlight a series of strong dips in the jet stream that would help protect Florida and the East Coast.

We could see a track similar to Erin with a curve north in the Atlantic, near or east of the Bahamas. A westerly path with more implications for the islands is not out of the question.

We’re looking out 7-10 days so we’ll be watching how fast it starts moving, what the steering guidance will be during that timeframe, and how model trends evolve once it forms.