Tropical Depression Nine is just shy of becoming the next named storm of the season as it moves over the Bahamas.

This is expected to become Tropical Storm Imelda later on Sunday and a Category 1 hurricane Monday or Tuesday as it passes off Florida’s east coast.

The Watch runs from the Palm Beach/Martin County Line to Flagler/Volusia County Line, where fringe effects from the storm will be possible starting on Monday. Tropical Storm Warning is up for the Bahamas.

Space Coast areas could feel tropical-storm-force wind gusts, in the 40-50 mph range, but the storm stays offshore and impacts aren’t expected inland. Rough beach and boating conditions will be in place for several days on the east coast of Florida.

The latest trend is good news for the Carolinas and coastal Georgia. These areas are no longer included in the forecast cone and there is high confidence Imelda stays offshore before turning east and going out to sea.

This brings rain totals down significantly with a general 2-4″ and locally high rainfall totals up to 7″ near the coast through Wednesday morning.

Part of what is helping to steer future Imelda out to sea is Hurricane Humberto, which is altering the steering currents and helping to tug the storm east.

Humberto is still a powerful Category 4 hurricane and will pass west of Bermuda Tuesday – Wednesday.

This tropical wave in the central Atlantic, now deemed Invest 92L, has a high chance to develop this week. The odds are up to 80% in the next 7 days and 40% in the next 2 days.

The disturbance is still battling dust and wind shear as it tries to get organized. It is moving west-northwest through the tropical Atlantic.

The system will start to tap into more favorable conditions to develop as it moves away from Saharan dust and into warmer waters.

This will likely become a depression around the middle to end of this week. If sustained winds reach 40 mph, this would become the 7th named storm of the season – Tropical Storm Gabrielle.

The main steering will be the Bermuda High and a break in the ridge looks likely to curve the system north. Many models are trending with this happening near/north of the islands and staying well east of Florida and the U.S.

If this forms, it has a good chance becoming a fish storm and staying out to sea. Impacts to Bermuda and/or Caribbean Islands could still happen in that scenario. There’s also the possibility of seeing a track similar to Hurricane Erin with no direct hit.

For now, this tropical wave is not a worry for the Continental U.S. but we will watch the trends evolve as the system gets better organized.