Tropical Atlantic is quiet as we approach peak season

There are no areas of interest in the Atlantic and things look to remain quiet over the next 7 days.

The tropical wave we’ve been watching, Invest 91L, rapidly died out. Development odds went from 90% to 30% to 0% in about 48 hours. The wave was battling Saharan dust, strong shear and a hostile environment.

The quiet Atlantic comes just days away from the climatological peak of hurricane season, which is on Sept 10.

So far this season we’ve had 6 named storms along with Hurricane Erin, which strengthened into a major hurricane.

Invest 91L development odds drop to low

The tropical wave we’ve been watching now has a low chance to form. The odds for Invest 91L are down to 30%.

The disturbance has been battling dry air and moving so slowly that it has not been able to pull away from the dust and strengthen. This Saharan air layer has about 50% less moisture, which really limits a tropical system.

Invest 91L will continue moving west around 10-15 mph but many models don’t develop it further.

If it holds together, the disturbance will be near the Lesser Antilles by Tuesday – Wednesday.

So far this season, we’ve had 6 named storms and Hurricane Erin. Gabrielle is the next name in line.

The G named storm typically forms on September 3rd.