A slight change in the track has prompted more tropical watches/warnings. Hurricane Watch in effect for Florida’s Big Bend from the Aucilla River to Yankeetown, where hurricane-force winds are possible.

Tropical Storm Warning runs along most of the west coast, including Tampa Bay. Watches are in effect for inland areas highlighted in yellow.

Tropical Depression Four still has sustained winds of 35mph while it spins over western Cuba, moving WNW at 15 mph.

Here’s the latest track for Tropical Depression Four:

The track has shifted west based on where the storm’s center of circulation is ending up on the southern edge of the island of Cuba. This will offer more time for this to strengthen over very warm Gulf waters.

Earlier interaction with land would cause the storm to weaken, but that looks less likely in the recent track. The west coast, and a large part of Florida, will get downpours, flooding and tropical-storm-force winds.

A Storm Surge Watch runs from Bonita Beach to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Here’s a look at the expected storm surge:

Tropical Depression Four is still forecast to become Tropical Storm Debby sometime on Saturday as it moves through the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

The storm will turn north and run parallel to the west coast of Florida Sunday, before turning NE and likely coming onshore over the eastern Big Bend.

Then the storm likely slows down early next week, possibly even stalling near the Carolinas. If it hugs the coast and feeds off warm Gulf Stream waters, this could cause quite a bit of trouble for the SE.

This is going to be a big rain maker, with 4-8″ of rainfall looking likely, and some spots even getting a foot of rain. Flooding, especially along the coast, will be one of the main concerns.

High tide Sunday afternoon could coincide with the brunt of this, ramping up storm surge impacts. We can’t rule out tornadoes spinning up as Tampa Bay and the west coast will get the dirty side of the storm.

Could this strengthen into a hurricane? It’s more likely with the latest track keeping it over the Gulf longer – but not certain. We can’t rule out rapid intensification over the incredibly warm waters.

At this point, forecasts don’t call for it to become a hurricane. We will be closely watching it. Make sure you have a way to get alerts! We’ll keep you updated.

Tropical Storm conditions will spread into the state starting Saturday, worsening early Sunday morning.

Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings extend from the Big Bend down the Southwest Coast and into the Florida Keys.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is currently over Cuba and will emerge somewhere near the Straits of Florida by early Saturday. Once this wave reaches the incredibly warm Gulf waters, it’s expected to intensify.

We’ll likely have the fourth named storm of the season on Saturday. It will be named Tropical Storm Debby once maximum sustained winds reach 39 mph.

The storm will continue moving northwest, then take a turn north and northeast Sunday into early next week. This could still maintain tropical storm strength as it crosses the state and moves up the Atlantic coastline.

Rain is going to be the biggest impact from this storm, with a general 4-6″ looking likely late Saturday through Sunday. A large portion of Florida is highlighted in a risk for excessive rain on Sunday, particularly central and southern FL.

There heaviest rain could shift depending where exactly the storm comes onshore. Coastal flooding along the west coast will be a concern, along with the potential for inland flooding from a deluge of tropical rains Sunday.

As for storm surge, here’s what we’re thinking. A general 1-3 feet of surge is possible from Aripeka to the southern coast of FL.

Tropical-storm-force will start in southern parts of the state Saturday, spreading north overnight as the storm moves up the west coast.

By early Sunday morning, the Bay Area will be dealing with gusts between 50-60 mph, with some higher gusts possible closer to the storm’s center. Winds will be howling for a good portion of Sunday as the storm moves northeast.

Keep in mind these: computer models can shift as the storm organizes more. The general consensus is it continues northwest, taking a curve NE to cross the state somewhere in central FL.

If it hugs the coast more and makes landfall closer to the Big Bend, this would offer more time so strengthen. At this point, a weaker tropical storm making a farther south landfall is most likely.

So what’s steering this storm? There are two main areas of high pressure guiding it. On Sunday, a trough dips into the northeast which allows for a weakness in the ridge. This will pull the storm north, before turning it NE.

Do what you can to prepare now and stock up on sandbags. Remember, we have 90% of the season ahead of us. Here’s a good checklist of things that are good to have in your hurricane supply kit.