Since Hurricane Beryl’s three landfalls in July, the tropics have been hitting snooze. Things are changing as we wait and watch a wave in the Atlantic.

The odds have increased – now a 50% chance it will develop over the next 7 days. This area of disturbed weather has slowly been trying to get its act together in the central Atlantic Ocean.

This area of disturbed weather could interact with an approaching tropical wave. Conditions are expected to be favorable for development later this week.

Disorganized storms are on the southern edge of a large plume of Saharan Dust, which has been keeping the tropics quiet.

The disturbance will encounter less of this dry Saharan air as it continues to move generally west-northwest.

There is still a lot of uncertainty on if this will even develop into a tropical depression. The NHC says, a tropical depression could form while the system is near the Greater Antilles or Bahamas.

If the storm develops, we’ll have a much better idea of where it will track. The Bermuda High will steer it either toward the Eastern Seaboard or into the Gulf of Mexico over the next 7-10 days.

This is several days out and the picture will become more clear in the coming days. The storm could have the ingredients in place to strengthen. Waters are plenty warm across the entire Atlantic Basin.

Wind shear has been strong the last few weeks, also limiting tropical development, but that’s changing as well. There won’t be much wind shear for this wave to interact with.

If this strengthens into a tropical storm, it will be named Debby and be the fourth named storm of the season.

“Hurricane Beryl is a likely harbinger of a hyperactive season” – according to experts at Colorado State University.

The July update was just released. CSU forecasters are calling for an even more active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

This comes after the April outlook was already the most aggressive we’ve seen from an early season forecast. Originally calling for 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, of which 5 would become major hurricanes (category 3 or higher).

Now the July outlook calls for: 15 named storms, 12 of which become hurricanes, and major hurricanes. And across the board, look at how much higher these numbers are compared to average!

While it’s not the trend we’d like to see, this update isn’t a big surprise after Beryl’s record-breaking early season stats.

There are two big factors that tie into this outlook: record warm waters and an anticipated transition to La Niña.

Sea surface temperatures in the main development region still remain near record warm levels, which is the main source of fuel for hurricanes.

We already saw that with Hurricane Beryl, which rapidly intensified thanks to fuel from these bath-like waters.

Also the transition to La Niña during the peak of the hurricane season will allow for more favorable conditions for hurricanes.

La Niña refers to the cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific. This has a series of impacts: pushing the jet stream more north, weakening trade winds and lowering wind shear in the Atlantic.

Lower wind shear is a big factor is aiding hurricanes to travel across the Atlantic.

CSU forecasters say “we anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”

It’s important to remember this is just a forecast but it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make a season active. Now is the time to get prepared and have a plan in place.