Hurricane Melissa rapidly intensifies near Jamaica

Jamaica is bracing for Hurricane Melissa, which rapidly intensified into a strong Category 4, with 140 mph maximum sustained winds.

The storm is currently about 120 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica and moving at an extremely slow pace of 5 mph.

This slow movement is going to be one of the most problematic parts of Melissa as it brings days of torrential rain, flash flooding, storm surge and likely landslides due to the mountainous terrain.

Melissa is forecast to continue to strengthen before hitting the southern coast of Jamaica late Monday – early Tuesday, with peak winds expected to be near 160 mph.

Rainfall of 15 to 30″ is forecast for portions of Jamaica and Haiti into Wednesday. Eastern Cuba will likely get 6-12″ of rain, with isolated totals up to 18″.

Life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south coast of Jamaica late Monday through Tuesday morning. Peak
storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will come with large and destructive waves.

Melissa will continue moving west Sunday and will start to curve north-northeast just south of Jamaica. From there, it will pick up speed as a trough off the southeast coast of the U.S. starts to move Melissa along.

The storm’s center will cross over eastern Cuba late Tuesday or early Wednesday, the southeastern Bahamas later on Wednesday, and reaching the vicinity of Bermuda on Friday.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo forms in Atlantic

Tropical Storm Lorenzo, the 12th named storm of the season, formed early Monday morning in the central Atlantic.

The good news is Lorenzo will move north, staying out to sea and far away from land thanks to a weakness in the subtropical ridge.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo will strengthen by early Thursday with 70 mph sustained winds forecast. From there, it will gradually weaken into this weekend as it curves NE south of the Azores.

Lorenzo is currently about 1,000 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands with 45 mph sustained winds.

It is fighting off some wind shear, which is limiting strengthening, but shear will lessen and will open the door for Lorenzo to strengthen more on Wednesday-Thursday.

The storm is moving northwest at about 17 mph but is expected to gradually turn north on Tuesday then NE.

So far this season: 12 named storms, 4 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes have formed.

The trend of storms taking a hard turn north and curving out to sea or remaining out to sea entirely has been notable.

Melissa is the next name in line on the 2025 season list followed by Nestor.