Hurricane season is not ready for its curtain call. The area we’ve been watching in the Caribbean Sea now has a very good chance to develop by the end of this week.

Storms are looking more impressive in the central Caribbean along the tropical wave. It’s in an area that will allow for strengthening and a tropical depression likely forms by Friday.

The area is going to generally to move west through the Caribbean Sea in a favorable area for strengthening. Wind shear remains weak as it moves through a moisture rich environment.

Water temperatures are also well above average for November, offering up plenty of warmth for a tropical system.

The area likely hangs around the western Caribbean over the weekend before slowly starting to move northwest early next week.

There are several scenarios that could play out and we can’t rule out this moving into the Gulf of Mexico. This late in the season, fall features will play a big role in guiding this storm once it develops.

The next few days, a strong front moving across the south will keep tropical activity confined to the Caribbean.

Where high pressure is, where the dip in the jet stream is, and if there is strong shear in the Gulf will be important early next week once the storm starts moving.

Stay up to date with the forecast. Once a center of circulation forms, the picture will start becoming more clear on the potential track and strength of this storm.

Sara is the next name in line this season. And there is high confidence Sara could form by Friday.

Tropical Depression Eighteen is now spinning in the south-central Caribbean Sea. This is expected to become Tropical Storm Rafael Monday or early Tuesday on approach to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.

The depression has jogged a bit more right compared to the initial track – but winds have held at 35 mph.

It will start to turn northwest, taking the center near/south of Jamaica Monday night and passing the Caymans by late Tuesday. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands, Tropical Storm Warning for Jamaica, and a Hurricane Watch for parts of Cuba.

Tropical Depression 18 is forecast to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane and move across western Cuba Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions will start in the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon, and across western Cuba early Wednesday.

This low pressure area has developed a well-defined center and deep convection is slowly becoming more organized, especially on the south and east side of the circulation.

This is expected to steadily strengthen until it reaches Cuba as low wind shear, high moisture along with warm waters are all there.

Models remain in solid agreement with the storm’s track towards Cuba through Wednesday.

When the system reaches the Gulf of Mexico at the end of this week, the steering currents get a bit tricky. That’s why we see the models start to spread out and confidence is lower.

The model consensus takes this towards Louisiana.

On this current track, winds and surge are not a concern for the Florida west coast. Scattered gusty rain and storms will move across the state Wednesday and Thursday.

The overall trend west through the Gulf will mean fewer impacts in Florida but we will watch this for any changes.

The good news is heat content is much lower in the Gulf compared to the Caribbean, and in some spots sea surface temperatures are in the upper 70s. Tropical systems thrive in 80° waters or warmer.

The storm will also run into strong shear and dry air in the Gulf, which is expected to weaken it ahead of landfall.

We could see Tropical Storm Watches issued for the Florida Keys later today. More updates to come!