NOAA has released its latest 2025 hurricane season outlook. This update still calls for an active season, though the number of expected storms has been slightly lowered.

They now predict a 50% chance (down from 60% in their previous forecast) of an above-average season. It is important to remember that this forecast is not specific to Florida.

Dexter is now a post-tropical cyclone. It succumbed to powerful upper level winds in the north Atlantic, becoming an extratropical cyclone this morning.

We are currently watching two areas for possible development in the tropics. Neither provide any immediate issues to the United States.

A weak area of low pressure still has a small chance of becoming a named storm as it pulls away from the U.S. on a similar path to Dexter.

In the central tropical Atlantic we are still monitoring a tropical wave (Invest 96L) with increasing chances of development.

There is growing confidence that a weakness in high pressure to its north will help steer this system into the central or west Atlantic next week.

Early weather model plots also support this gradual turn north.

Tropical Storm Dexter has officially formed off the East Coast of the United States. Thankfully, this storm is moving away from the U.S. and will have little to no impact on our local weather patterns.

Some strengthening is possible in the short term, but Dexter is expected to weaken and dissipate in the North Atlantic within the next week.

This is the fourth named storm of the season. “Erin” is the next name on the 2025 storm naming list.

There are two additional areas the National Hurricane Center is monitoring. In the yellow-shaded region, an area of low pressure could form with a low (20%) chance of development over the next week. If it does develop, early signs suggest a west or northwest drift, which could increase rain chances in the Tampa Bay area later this week.

A tropical wave emerging from Africa has slightly better odds of development. The latest NHC outlook increases its development chances to 40% (in the orange-shaded region) within the next seven days. This disturbance is more than 4,000 miles away, giving us plenty of time to monitor its progress.