Ever since Hurricane Ernesto, there has been a quiet stretch of inactivity across the North Atlantic. This period is forecast to extend into September as no new named storms are expected to form over the next seven days.

A driving factor of this is how plumes of Saharan dust are continuing to get swept across the Tropical Atlantic, effectively drying out most disturbances before they can show signs of development.

Additionally, tropical waves (the seeds of tropical storms and hurricanes) are encountering relatively cool sea surface temperatures off the coast of Africa. This contrasts the abnormally warm waters to their west that they are struggling to reach.

It’s important to note that we have over two-thirds of our hurricane season to go, and long-term signals are still pointing toward an active season. September 10th marks the climatological peak of the season, with the month of September historically producing more U.S. land-falling storms than any other month.

We are approaching the peak of our Atlantic hurricane season, but the North Atlantic Basin is still remaining quiet. No named storms are expected to form over the next seven days.

Saharan dust has blanketed large amounts of the Main Development Region (MDR). This is drying out tropical systems that are attempting to form, and will likely stay in place until the end of this month. Typically, the amount of Saharan dust we see in the region substantially decreases during this time of the year. The length of our current Saharan dust season has been unprecedented, which has contributed to our stretch of inactivity.

Another factor is the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), where most tropical waves move along, has shifted northward in the Atlantic Basin. This has placed these emerging waves deeper into the Saharan dust plumes and over cooler waters to the north.

We have already had five named storms in the Atlantic. All five made landfalls at least once. In an average season, we see our sixth named storm form by August 29th. Thus, eight more days of silence would put the 2024 season behind schedule.

The remainder of our current season season is still forecast to be an active one. Warm sea surface temperatures, the eventual decline of our Saharan Air Layer, and the likely emergence of a La Nina ENSO phase during the season are all proponents for this. September is climatologically the most active month of our Atlantic hurricane season.