The signal for a tropical depression or tropical storm to develop in the central tropical Atlantic continues to climb. There is now a high (70%) chance of formation assigned to Invest 95L, with a 50% chance that formation could occur early next week.

Invest 95L is a broad area of low pressure with an impressive cluster of thunderstorms surrounding it. As it travels west, the environment around it will become increasingly favorable for organization.

The Lesser Antilles should monitor the disturbance carefully over the next few days.

The majority of weather models bring the wave near or over the islands late next week. Several of those same models eventually strengthen it into a hurricane next week.

Early indications suggest that, if it forms, upper level steering would eventually curve this system away from the United States. It is still just the beginning of the system’s forecast period, so shifts and adjustments in the expected track will be possible.

The next name on the 2025 storm naming list is “Jerry”.

There are two areas currently being monitored in the Atlantic for development.

An area of low pressure over the Bahamas has a low (10%) chance of formation within the next seven days.

Moderate wind shear over the western Atlantic will make it difficult for this spot to get organized.

Interestingly enough, this formed along the frontal boundary that stems from the remnants of Hurricane Imelda.

The combination of this low and a robust high-pressure system to its north will funnel deep tropical moisture into the east coast of Florida.

This will make for a breezy few days across the state with amplified rain chances along our east coast, regardless of whether tropical development actually occurs.

A tropical wave emerging off Africa’s coastline today has a medium (50%) chance of development within the next seven days.

Many long-range weather models now show this system developing in the western tropical Atlantic next week. The Lesser Antilles should keep an eye on its progress. This is over 4,000 miles away from our coastline and poses no immediate threat to the United States. Weather models would become significantly more dependable after a tropical storm or depression actually forms.

If a new tropical storm forms, the next name on our 2025 storm naming list would be “Jerry.”