We continue to monitor only one area of potential development in the Atlantic. A tropical wave, set to emerge off the coast of Africa within the next day or so, has now been assigned a low 30% chance of formation within the next week.

In their latest update, the NHC has identified where the tropical wave is currently located with a yellow “x”.

As this disturbance pushes west, it will eventually encounter an environment more conducive to development. Warmer sea surface temperatures, lower wind shear, and the potential to encounter less Saharan dust could all encourage its eventual development early next week.

Multiple weather models now hint at development within the same time frame. This tropical wave is over 4,000 miles away from the Mainland United States coastline, giving us a long time to keep an eye on it. No tropical trouble is anticipated for Florida within the next week.

We are still tracking Invest 91L as it drifts across the central tropical Atlantic. The National Weather Service has now dropped its 7-day development odds to 60%.

In the last 24 hours weather model support has dropped substantially, as drier air brought on by Saharan Dust has shrouded the disturbance. This had led to an additional drop of the odds of development over the next two days to 30%.

While many forecast models now dissipate the system, many still develop it into at least a tropical depression as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. These islands will still need to watch the progression of Invest 91L carefully before it possibly reaches the islands by the middle to end of next week.

The disturbance is moving very slowly (less than 10 mph at times) and will give the United States well over a week to monitor it if it forms.

The next name on our 2025 storm naming list is Gabrielle.