We are now tracking Potential Tropical Cyclone Six in the Western Gulf of Mexico. “Six” is expected to strengthen into a hurricane before making landfall by the middle of this week. 

Weather model guidance has been in good agreement regarding the track of this storm. Francine would likely be the name it’s assigned if it organizes into a tropical storm.

The storm will likely bring 4 to 8 inches of rainfall to areas along the Texas coast into Louisiana with local amounts potentially reaching 12 inches. Coastal flooding and life-threatening surf/rip currents are also possible along the Western Gulf coast.

Damaging tropical storm and hurricane-force winds are expected for areas impacted by this storm. Tropical storm watches are now in effect for portions of the Texas Gulf Coast. Additional watches and warnings will be needed over the next few days.

There are two additional tropical disturbances we are monitoring in the central tropical Atlantic. Early indications still suggest that upper-level steering would likely pull these systems north and away from Florida.

There is now a high chance of development for an area of low pressure (Invest 91L) that has formed over the Bay of Campeche. Most of our weather models show the disturbance organizing into a tropical depression or tropical storm as it moves northward. This would likely occur by the beginning/middle of next week. The western Gulf of Mexico coast should closely monitor the progress of this disturbance.

Early model plots indicate that Eastern Mexico, Louisiana, and Texas are all possible locations for landfall if this forms. However, these are the first plots generated for Invest 91L and strength/track forecasts are subject to change. The next name on our list would be Francine.

There are two additional areas in the central Tropical Atlantic being monitored for formation. Each of these is over 2,500 miles away from Florida’s coastline. Neither would pose any immediate threat to land.