There is now a high chance of development for an area of low pressure (Invest 91L) that has formed over the Bay of Campeche. Most of our weather models show the disturbance organizing into a tropical depression or tropical storm as it moves northward. This would likely occur by the beginning/middle of next week. The western Gulf of Mexico coast should closely monitor the progress of this disturbance.

Early model plots indicate that Eastern Mexico, Louisiana, and Texas are all possible locations for landfall if this forms. However, these are the first plots generated for Invest 91L and strength/track forecasts are subject to change. The next name on our list would be Francine.

There are two additional areas in the central Tropical Atlantic being monitored for formation. Each of these is over 2,500 miles away from Florida’s coastline. Neither would pose any immediate threat to land.

We are now keeping tabs on five unique areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic for chances of development.

A tropical wave in the northwest Caribbean Sea will have a low (30%) chance of formation after it enters the Bay of Campeche over the weekend.

While this wave has struggled to organize over the past several days, it will have another chance over the warmer waters of the southern Gulf

Meanwhile, we are again keeping tabs on a disturbance off the coast of Texas. Development is unlikely as increasing wind shear will create a hostile environment off the coastlines of Texas and Louisiana. It currently has a low (10%) chance of formation over the next week.

The disturbance will continue to be a prolific rainmaker for that region through the weekend.

By early next week, there is now a low (10%) chance of formation for a tropical wave in the Central Tropical Atlantic. This is after passes north of the Greater/Lesser Antilles early next week.

The National Hurricane Center is also watching an area of low pressure (Invest 99L) producing disorganized showers and storms a few hundred miles east of North Carolina. This could gain subtropical characteristics as it generally moves northeast over the next few days.

Weather forecast models keep the disturbance well off the coast of the United States. They eventually bring it into a less favorable environment for formation, over the cooler waters of the North Atlantic this weekend. It has a low (20%) chance of development over the next two days.

A broad area of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic now has a low (20%) chance of forming within the next week. Regardless, it will likely track north/northwest and remain in the central Atlantic.