Author Archives: Nash Rhodes

Tracking Tropical Storm Erin

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All eyes remain on Tropical Storm Erin as it continues to push across the central Atlantic.

Erin should become the first hurricane of the season before the week ends, and weather models are now leaning toward it steering well east off the east coast of Florida next week.

Residents in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the immediate progress of this system closely. While confidence in the forecast track is increasing, it’s still too early to determine potential impacts for the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, or other parts of the eastern U.S. coastline.

The forecast is becoming clearer with each update, and the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly through Erin on Thursday to collect crucial data that will help fine-tune the track and intensity outlook. Warm ocean temperatures and low wind shear along Erin’s path are expected to support steady strengthening in the coming days. If the high-pressure ridge to the north weakens as expected, it would open a pathway for Erin to curve northward.

We are additionally watching the Bay of Campeche for a disturbance with a low (20%) chance of development. Early indications suggests a general a northwest movement for anything that forms there in the short term. Regardless, this wave is not expected to bring any impacts to Florida.

“Fernand” is the next name up on our 2025 storm naming list.

“Erin” Expected to Form This Week in the Atlantic

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A robust tropical wave (Invest 97L) will likely develop into a tropical depression or storm within the next few days. The National Hurricane Center now gives it a high 90% chance to develop within the next week.

While there is growing confidence that this system will stay out of the Caribbean Sea, it’s too early to confidently predict where it may go from there.

97L will be battling slightly cooler waters and pockets of Saharan dust over the next few days. By the time it nears the Lesser Antilles, it should move into a more favorable environment for strengthening.

Questions remain regarding the storm’s future strength and upper level steering that would impact its ultimate track. Additionally, weather models will become significantly more reliable after a storm actually forms.

For now, this disturbance is roughly 4,000 miles away from the mainland United States, giving us plenty of time to monitor its progress. “Erin” is the next name up on our storm naming list.

Meanwhile, a struggling Invest 96L (shown in yellow) in the central tropical Atlantic will have a low chance of developing within the next few days. Its formation would be inconsequential to the United States.