We are currently monitoring two tropical waves in the Atlantic.

Invest 94L will have a low chance of development over the next few days as it moves into the Western Caribbean and Bay of Campeche. If it forms, this system will likely remain fairly weak and would not bring any impacts to Florida.

In the middle of the Atlantic, we are also watching a tropical wave with a medium (40%) chance of development over the next seven days.

Models are beginning to show increasing agreement in the likelihood of this system organizing into a tropical depression or tropical storm as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. It is too early to speculate on potential paths beyond that point. This disturbance is currently over 3,000 miles away from Florida, so we have a long time to monitor its progression.

The next name on our naming list would be “Beryl” followed by “Chris.”

Invest 92L is now less than 80 miles off the coasts of Northern Florida and Georgia. Among several factors, dry air will make the system struggle to strengthen too much before pushing onshore tonight. Whether it organizes into a tropical depression or not, the disturbance will bring heavy rainfall and windy conditions to nearby areas. This additionally brings a threat of high surf and rip currents to portions of the east coast.

Local impacts will be even smaller. A notable increase in humidity in the Tampa Bay area and slightly elevated rain chances for communities north of I-4 will be possible. 

In the Southwestern Gulf, we are continuing to monitor an area of disturbed weather that has favorable odds to develop within the next week. Forecast models are in increasing agreement that this will attempt to become a tropical depression in the Bay of Campeche over the weekend. The National Hurricane Center has given the disturbance a medium (60%) chance of formation over the next seven days. Regardless of formation, this system would not bring impacts to Florida.

Now that “Alberto” has been used, the next named tropical storm or hurricane that forms would take the name “Beryl”.