High chance of tropical depression or tropical storm forming by Monday

Odds of development continue to increase for each of the two waves we’ve been tracking over the past week.

Invest 94L (our disturbance in the Central Caribbean) now has a 30% chance of formation as it moves into the Western Caribbean and the Bay of Campeche over the next few days. Even if this system were to develop, it will likely be short-lived and on the weaker side. This is not a threat to Florida and is unlikely to bring substantial impacts to the United States.

In the middle of the Atlantic, we are keeping tabs on Invest 95L. There is now a high chance that his tropical wave becomes a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next few days.

Models are in agreement that the system will continue to move west and into the Caribbean by Monday. As it progresses west, the unseasonally warm waters of the Caribbean may help it strengthen. Among the models that develop the system, the majority of them now strengthen it into a hurricane.

There is high confidence among those weather forecast models that the wave will pass through the Greater Antilles and into the Eastern Caribbean.

Beyond that, it is far too early to speculate on the potential path of the storm. It is currently about 3,000 miles away from Florida, so we have a long time to monitor it.

The name “Beryl” would be assigned to the next tropical storm or hurricane that forms.

Tracking two tropical waves this week

We are currently monitoring two tropical waves in the Atlantic.

Invest 94L will have a low chance of development over the next few days as it moves into the Western Caribbean and Bay of Campeche. If it forms, this system will likely remain fairly weak and would not bring any impacts to Florida.

In the middle of the Atlantic, we are also watching a tropical wave with a medium (40%) chance of development over the next seven days.

Models are beginning to show increasing agreement in the likelihood of this system organizing into a tropical depression or tropical storm as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. It is too early to speculate on potential paths beyond that point. This disturbance is currently over 3,000 miles away from Florida, so we have a long time to monitor its progression.

The next name on our naming list would be “Beryl” followed by “Chris.”